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Britain is in a position to treat. In the meantime the advocates of the preferential policy are looking, in Great Britain, for advances from the Colonies, while endeavouring by means of Blue-books to prove, not very successfully, that the advances have been made. The situation has a humorous side which has a historical precedent

"The Earl of Chatham, with sword drawn,
Stood waiting for Sir Richard Strachan;
Sir Richard, longing to be at 'em,

Stood waiting for the Earl of Chatham.'

The Blue-book (Cd. 2326, 1904) which has been put forward, as we have said, to prove that the Colonies are very much in earnest on the subject of preferential trade, is not a convincing document: it requires explanation. The first resolution quoted is that of 1892, to which we have already referred (p. 6). That resolution was voted against by all who now remain in public life of the party then in opposition and now in power. It was passed by the party which is now in the minority. Its authority as a measure of public opinion is therefore small. The second resolution, to which also we have referred (p. 6), is that which was passed in 1900. It runs as follows:

"This House regards the principle of British preference in the Canadian customs tariff as one which, in its application, has already resulted, and will, in an increasing measure, continue to result, in material benefit to the mother-country and to Canada, and which has already aided in welding, and must still more firmly weld, together the ties which now bind them, and desires to express its emphatic approval of such British preference having been granted by the Parliament of Canada.' This was voted against by all who remained in public life of the party which passed the resolution of 1892. It was, however, carried by 91 votes to 46. It simply represents the opinion of the dominant party in favour of the unconditional preference of 1897-8, and has no reference at all to the general scheme of mutual preference within the Empire. That this is so is proved by the fact that, in the same session, the following resolution was rejected by a vote of 88 to 48:

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"That this House is of opinion that a system of mutual trade preference between Great Britain and Ireland and the Colonies

would greatly stimulate increased production in and commerce between those countries, and would thus promote and maintain the unity of the Empire; and that no measure of preference which falls short of the complete realisation of such a policy should be considered final or satisfactory.'

It will thus appear that parliamentary opinion in Canada on this subject is still an uncertain quantity. The resolutions given in the Blue-book, as passed in the provincial legislatures, require similar explanation. They can hardly be considered valuable. That of Manitoba is as follows:

"This House strongly commends and endorses the policy advocated by the Right Honourable Joseph Chamberlain, involving certain fiscal changes within the Empire, and is of the opinion that the inauguration and putting into practical effect of such policy would be of paramount importance and benefit to the people of Manitoba.'

It is necessary to explain that an amendment to the above was moved in the following terms:

'That the people of Canada, to assist in the successful carrying out of this policy, should be prepared to make such further substantial reductions in the Canadian tariff against British goods as shall ensure to the British manufacturers an enlarged market in Canada in return for a preference by Great Britain upon Canadian food products.'

This amendment was rejected; and its rejection is evidence of the fact that any further substantial reduction of the Canadian tariff is not contemplated nor desired, even in the corn-producing province of Manitoba. In conclusion, we may point out that there are no resolutions from Ontario, nor from Quebec, nor from Nova Scotia, nor from British Columbia. We may therefore put the other provinces aside.

The most authoritative opinion from non-official sources which has been expressed on the subject was that of the general meeting of Chambers of Commerce of the Empire which took place at Montreal.

The resolution then passed, after much discussion and some amendment, was as follows:

It is resolved that, in the opinion of this congress, the bonds of the British Empire shall be materially strengthened, and a union of the various parts of his Majesty's dominions greatly consolidated, by the adoption of a commercial policy based upon the principle of mutual benefit, whereby each component part of the Empire would receive a substantial advantage in trade as the result of its national relationship, due consideration being given to the fiscal and industrial needs of the component parts of the Empire; and that this congress urges upon his Majesty's Government the appointment by them of a special commission, composed of representatives of Great Britain and her Colonies and India, to consider the possibility of thus increasing and strengthening the trade relations between the different parts of the Empire and the trading facilities within the Empire and with foreign countries.'

In this resolution we find the characteristic weaknesses of the whole case-(1) the assumption that somehow the welfare and unity of this Empire depend upon a new fiscal policy; (2) that this new fiscal policy must in no way threaten any of the present or prospective interests of the Colonies or limit their right to protect their own industries; (3) that a new conference-all the others having failed-is the way to arrive at finality. The most casual reader will see, when he examines the resolution, that, if the new policy is not adopted, this Empire will probably not perish; that a policy, the permanence of which must always depend on the reserved right of the Colonies, and of Great Britain, to alter their own tariffs to suit circumstances, is not likely to be stable; and that a new conference, to which all the members will come fettered by local jealousy, local interests, and local political exigencies, will end as the others have ended, in Bluebooks and bathos.

What are the practical results, so far, of the measure of Preference accorded by Canada? That they are in dispute, alike in Canada and in Great Britain, is natural enough, since, in both countries alike, they are in the arena of politics, and it is not easy to disentangle what is economic from what is political in the figures and arguments presented. The statistics are, to some extent, rendered of doubtful value by the fact that, from 1892 to 1896, there was a period of depression in Canadian

trade, and that from 1897 to the present date there has been a period of unusual activity due to the opening up of the Yukon territory, the rapid extension of railways, the great increase in population, and the liberal expenditure of public revenue by an energetic government. It follows that the conditions for a comparison of trade figures over long periods, such as we find in the Colonial Office memorandum and the Canadian reply in the report of the colonial 'conference of 1902 (Cd. 1299, 1902), are not normal. But the conditions during the period from 1897 to 1904 offer a fair basis for deduction from the figures given in the Blue-books. The following tables give us a fairly clear idea of the course of trade during these six years and of the general effect of the preference given by Canada:

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From these tables it seems to be clear that while, so far as regards British trade with Canada, the results of the preferential policy have been successful, as regards Germany and the West Indies Great Britain has no special cause for rejoicing. She has shared, indeed, in the expanding trade of Canada; but the United States have shared much more largely. She has, indeed, the one substantial advantage of one third off the duty collected under the Preference clause ($7,454,733); but whether this advantage is sufficient to justify her in altering the conditions on which a trade of more than 903,000,000l. sterling with all the world is conducted, is a point about which it is impossible to entertain any doubt.

That any further reduction of the customs duties of Canada on the manufactures of Great Britain can be expected is quite out of the question. The Canadian ministers made that clear in their memorandum in reply to the Colonial Office memorandum presented to the conference of 1902 in criticism of the operation of the preferential tariff of Canada. They said :

'In this connexion it might be noted that the Canadian Government has been attacked by Canadian manufacturers on the ground that the preference is seriously interfering with their trade. The woollen manufacturers have been foremost in the attack, and they have made very bitter complaints to the effect that the industry is threatened with ruin through the severe competition from Britain brought about by the operation of the preference. In brief, these manufacturers claim that the rates on woollens are too low to be protective of their industry.'

That the free list can be extended so as to be of any further service to Great Britain is equally unlikely, for Vol. 202.-No. 403.

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