such

Still uncontrolled and being emitted are contaminants totaling 14,000 tons per day. Of this, 1,330 tons come from all stationary sources including not only industry, but all combustion processes as domestic heating and cooking as well; 12,465 tons are being emitted from motor vehicles, meaning, for the most part, from the exhaust pipes of gasoline-powered automobiles.

That is the balance sheet: 6,320 tons controlled, 14,000 tons uncontrolled. That which can be controlled from nonmoving sources has been almost completely controlled; that which can be controlled from automotive sources has scarcely been touched and makes up 90 percent of our problem.

The cost to control 5,180 tons of pollution from stationary sources has been at least three-quarters of a billion dollars. Some of this we can measure with exactness; the remainder we can estimate. For example, a permit must be obtained for every piece of air pollution control equipment installed in Los Angeles County, and we keep a precise record of the cost of this equipment. Our records show that industry has expended more than $135 million for such control equipment. This does not include, however, the cost of maintaining or operating this equipment, or the value of the land it occupies, nor does it take into account the cost of designing and building into other basic equipment the modifications necessary to meet our requirements without the use of separate control devices. Wherever this is possible, it is done. The true cost to industry may be twice the $135 million. Another item which we measure precisely is the amount paid for fees for these permits, and the amount paid as fines for convictions of violations of our rules. Since 1948 these two items amount to $2,875,000. We also know accurately the cost of the air pollution control district for the 19 years of its existence: $46,095,300. Of this amount, more than $6 million has been spent for basic research. In addition, however, Los Angeles County taxpayers have also borne a pro rata share of the air pollution expenditures of the State of California and of the Federal Government; and that is a sizable amount.

Another area of expense has been rubbish collection and disposal, which costs an estimated $55 million a year in Los Angeles County. Since 1957 this has amounted to about a half billion dollars.

All of this expenditure for control is only the top of the iceberg of the cost of air pollution. There is no way of knowing the full cost to the people of Los Angeles County over the past 20 years.

The President has indicated the cost to the Nation as being $11 billion annually for air pollution. Los Angeles County has a share of approximately 5 percent of the national market, and if we share the cost of air pollution on the same 5-percent figure, then in 20 years air pollution has cost Los Angeles County $11 billion.

In the field of automotive control, developments of the past few years have tended to overshadow our long record of activity, but from the outset, this district has been deeply involved in the control of air pollution from motor vehicles, and continues to be.

The first benefit of that interest appeared as early as 1950 when research directed by Dr. Arie J. Haagen-Smit for the APCD revealed that hydrocarbons were capable of reacting with oxides of nitrogen under the influence of sunlight to produce photochemical smog.

By 1953, we established that the automobile was the largest source of air contaminants in this area and the principal source of the smogforming hydrocarbons. The APCD then undertook a program of basic research into automobile operation, local driving conditions, and the composition of gasoline to ascertain the effect of these factors on smog formation.

From the earliest time information became available we made efforts to induce the automobile industry to accept its responsibility for the exhaust problem. As a result of extended discussions, the automobile industry in late 1953 took official notice of the existence of the automotive contribution to air pollution, and established the Vehicle Combustion Products Subcommittee of the Engineering Committee of the Automobile Manufacturers Association.

During early 1954, this committee met with us in Los Angeles, and in conjunction with the APCD, worked out a program of investigation and research. We set a target date for installation of what then appeared to be a promising method of control, induction system devices that controlled the emissions of hydrocarbons during deceleration. The objective was to have these devices on the 1958 models.

In 1956, the Air Pollution Control District and the Air Pollution Foundation called a meeting in Pasadena of leading firms and figures in the chemical and automobile accessory fields, with the aim of stimulating their interest in the development of catalytic or other types of exhaust controls.

Our district established an automotive combustion laboratory, and built environmental test chambers to evaluate approaches to vehicle emission control. After being developed for 10 years, that automotive test facility and its trained personnel were turned over to the State of California. It is now the principal test center for the State program. Due in part to the efforts of the Board of Supervisors of Los Angeles County, the legislature of the State of California was prompted to occupy the field of automotive control, and in 1960 enacted the legislation that is now in effect. To administer the program, the legislature created the state motor vehicle pollution control board. As part of this program, the California State Department of Public Health established the first standards for air quality and for motor vehicle emissions.

In 1959, the automobile industry anounced that crankcase emissions were a significant source of smog-forming hydrocarbons, and at the same time offered a means of controlling approximately 80 percent of the emissions from this source. The Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District immediately undertook a pilot installation on cars of its own fleet to prove that the "closed system" constituting 100 percent control of crankcase blowby might be preferable, and whether there might be negative effects. The study afforded a basis for full-scale installation upon the entire fleet, and provided experience to guide the State board. Subsequently, the State board acted to make such installations mandatory on cars sold in California beginning with the 1964 models, and today all cars manufactured in the United States can have the "closed" crankcase emission control rather than the less efficient "open" system.

During the many years this was going on, the APCD followed up another lead, the regulation of fuel composition. After thorough in

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vestigation, we enacted our rule 63 which restricts the amount of olefins that may be contained in gasoline sold in Los Angeles County. This has reduced the eye-irritating characteristic of gasoline vapors and exhaust hydrocarbons and consequently has reduced the severity of eye irritation.

In 1964, the State board certified exhaust control devices for new car installation and that action prompted the automobile industry to bring forward its own systems to meet the California standards without their need to purchase the approved devices from outside vendors.

The industry announcement also may have been motivated by the policy adopted by the County of Los Angeles of buying new vehicles only if they met specified restrictions upon exhaust emissions.

From this record it can be seen that when on May 27, 1966, I made a report to my board on the prospects of success of current automotive emission control programs, it was a continuation of this traditional and very deep concern. That report reached these conclusions:

1. It is the opinion of this district that current motor vehicle control programs will not achieve acceptable air quality in Los Angeles County in the next decade.

2. Control of motor vehicle emissions must be intensified and accelerated if Los Angeles County is to have acceptable air quality by 1980.

Our objective is to reduce photochemical smog, as well as other manifestations of air pollution, to the point where they are no longer objectionable, either to the man in the street or to health authorities. Smog first became the subject of comment during the war years, and became critical shortly thereafter. Prior to 1940, so far as is known, air pollution levels in the atmosphere had not passed the threshold at which they became conspicuous. Therefore, we have looked upon the levels of pollution in the atmosphere existing before that date as being our target area, but, as no measurements were being made in those days, the outlines of that target necessarily have had to be estimated.

It was by such a process of estimation that the present California standards of 275 parts per million hydrocarbons and 1.5 percent carbon monoxide were developed. The State department of public health was charged with the duty of setting these standards. Data were compiled to show the daily gasoline consumption in Los Angeles County estimated for 1970 as compared to the Los Angeles County gasoline consumption in 1940. The amount of gasoline estimated for 1970 was approximately five times that being consumed in 1940. This indicated that if reactive hydrocarbon emissions to the atmosphere were to be reduced to the 1940 level, this required an 80 percent reduction from the anticipated 1970 level. Therefore, a "rollback" of 80 percent was deemed necessary.

The next question was 80 percent of what? And the answer was 80 percent of the amount of hydrocarbons being emitted from the exhaust of automobiles operating in 1970; but, of course, no 1970 car had yet been built and, therefore, it was necessary to measure cars existing at the time the standard was being set.

The best such data available in 1960 were those from six field surveys made in 1956. The State board of public health selected one in particular made in Los Angeles in the fall of 1956 as being the most appropriate and representative. These tests had been made by the Coordinating Research Council, which is sustained by the American Petroleum Institute and the Society of Automotive Engineers, and with the participation of the Los Angeles Air Pollution Control District, Beckman Instruments Corp., California Research Corp., E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Esso Research & Engineering Co., Ethyl Corp., Southern Pacific Co., Southeast Research Institute, the principal auto manufacturers, and 13 major oil companies. The tests were run on the dry, concrete-lined bed of the Los Angeles River and are sometimes referred to as the "River Bed Tests."

The average exhaust emissions obtained from 169 cars were: Hydrocarbons, 1,570 parts per million; and carbon monoxide, 3.8 percent. It was felt by those setting the standards that these values were unexplainably high, particularly for hydrocarbons. A judgment was made to assume a 5-percent weight loss of the supplied fuel for the purpose of calculating the hydrocarbon standards. This corresponds to a concentration of 1,375 parts per million and the standard was then decided upon that basis of 1,375, to which the 80-percent factor was applied. This yielded the standard of 275 parts per million for hydrocarbons. They also determined that emissions of carbon monoxide had to be reduced to 60 percent of existing values, and this factor, applied to the 3.8-percent measurement obtained in the river bed tests, yielded the 1.5 percent that is now the standard. Thus, the validity of these standards to accomplish the objective of reducing emissions to the 1940 level depends entirely upon the accuracy of the 1,375 and 3.8 figures. They are incorrect, and so are the standards. In 1962 and 1963, another measuring project known as the Los Angeles Auto Exhaust Test Station project was carried out cooperatively by the Southern California Automobile Club, the Automobile Manufacturers Association, the Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District, the U.S. Public Health Service, the California Highway Patrol, the California State Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Board, and the State Department of Public Health.

The objectives of the project were to obtain exhaust emission data from a large number of passenger cars, and to develop techniques for a mass testing program. Data were obtained from some 1,040 vehicles; the weighted average of hydrocarbon emissions proved to be about 750 parts per million. All of the participants accepted this as the most accurate figure representing hydrocarbon emissions of cars at that time. The State department of public health had performed some other tests on 194 cars and by applying the data obtained from those tests, and introducing various other weighting factors, concluded that an average emission of 930 parts per million hydrocarbons was the best figure from which to compute the 80-percent rollback. Taking 20 percent of the 930 figure provided the standard of 180 parts per million which California has adopted for 1970. If the APCDaccepted figure of 750 parts per million is taken, then 20 percent of that yields a standard of 150 parts per million.

It is our opinion that a standard of 180 is too high, as is 150 parts per million because that will get us back only to a point where we

were in 1945-and smog was very bad that year. We believe that the target area must be well below 100 parts per million.

Another way of looking at this is in the terms of gasoline consumption, because vehicular hydrocarbon emissions to the atmosphere are directly related to the amount of gasoline being consumed. We project that by 1970 the average amount of gasoline consumed in Los Angeles County will be 8.5 million gallons daily. However, as there is a timelag of about 10 years before new cars equipped with devices replace 90 percent of the existing automotive population, we must now base our rollback upon the amount of gasoline we anticipate will be consumed in 1980, which is about 11 million gallons a day. In 1940, gasoline consumption here was about 1.9 million gallons, or around 17 percent of the anticipated 1980 consumption. This indicates that the rollback must be about 83 percent net effective. As some inefficiency and deterioration must be anticipated, the actual requirement is going to have to take this into account and the standards should be lowered accordingly if we are actually to roll back the effect of gasoline consumption in 1980 to what it was in 1940. It is for this reason that the APCD feels the standard that must be established is between 100 and 50 parts per million.

Further, there will be a continuation of the growth of the motor vehicle population and in gasoline consumption after 1980, and by the year 2000 we anticipate daily gasoline consumption will be 15 million gallons per day. If we wish to remain at or below the 1940 level, the net effectiveness of devices must then be 87 percent. These are not unattainable goals, but we can fail to attain them if we do not put the necessary control measures into effect soon enough.