CHAPTER I AIR TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS The three major components of air travel demand are (1) commercial passengers, (2) tonnage of cargo, and (3) private airplanes. Forecasts for the growth of each of these components in the Washington-Baltimore Region are summarized below. Commercial Passengers Commercial air passengers nearly tripled in the Washington-Baltimore Region between 1960-when 2,698,660 passengers departed on commercial airplanes-and 1967-when the number had grown to 6,573,910. Trips originating in the Region are forecast to increase from 1,024 per thousand population in 1967 to 4,620 per thousand population in 1990. This compares with increases in the U.S. as a whole from 440 per thousand in 1967 to 2,200 per thousand in 1990. Larger planes, lower fares, and growth in incomes are all factors which tend to support increasing amounts of air passenger travel. Because of these factors, in combination with the high rates of population growth in the Region, total passenger demand is forecast to increase by 13.5 percent per year from 1967 to 1970. Then, as the unsatisfied market for air passengers becomes smaller, the rates of growth are expected to decrease slowly. By the period between 1985 and 1990, the annual growth rate is likely to be only about 8 percent per year. The growth in the number of total commercial air passengers using WashingtonBaltimore Region commercial airports from 1960 to 1990 is illustrated in Figure 1. Cargo National growth rates of air cargo in the near future are expected to continue significantly higher than growth rates of the Gross National Product and total inter-city freight ton miles. This trend represents rapidly increasing airplane cargo capacities, cost reductions, and significant broadening of the types of commodities shipped by air. In the late years of the forecast period, the air cargo growth rates will tend to fall toward the overall growth rates of the total economy. Since the Washington-Baltimore Region has an unusually large share of government activities, which tend to generate less air cargo than light manufacturing industries, the Region's growth in air cargo can be expected to remain slightly slower than that for the nation as a whole. Annual rates of growth for air cargo in the Region are expected to drop gradually from 19.2 percent between 1967 and 1970 to 13.0 percent between 1985 and 1990. Figure 2 shows the expected growth in air cargo tonnage in the Region from 1967 to 1990. Nationally, the number of private airplanes is growing at the same rate as the Gross National Product. However, major geographic regions vary from this trend significantly, because of their differences in household incomes, use of automobiles, and amount of manufacturing employment. Because of these factors, it is expected that the high rate of growth in numbers of private airplanes now being experienced in the Washington-Baltimore Region will continue in the future. In fact, by 1980, this Region could have the second largest concentration of such aircraft-second only to the Los Angeles Region. This expected growth, as shown in Figure 3, will increase the number of private airplanes in the Washington-Baltimore Region from 1,461 in 1967 to 7,980 by 1990. CHAPTER II AIRPORT OPERATIONS FORECASTS For a variety of reasons, the numbers of potential air passengers, tons of air cargo and private airplanes are not direct indicators of how much airport capacity is needed. The reasons are explained below in the course of translating the forecast volumes of passengers, cargo and private planes into airport operations. Commercial Passengers Of the potential commercial air passengers forecast for the future, some may be diverted to other means of travel, some may take seats now vacant on presently scheduled flights, and some may be accommodated on the larger planes expected to be put into service on present routes. Thus, the number of new flights is not expected to grow as fast as the number of passengers. These trends are summarized below. Diverted Passengers. In the future, some portion of potential air passengers may be diverted from regular commercial flights by alternative means of travel, such as vertical or short take-off and landing (V/STOL) aircraft—which may operate from special downtown sites-and new high speed trains. Both of these new competing modes of travel require further technological development before they will be economical and fast enough to divert significant numbers of passengers from the regular commercial planes. However, such developments seem very likely to occur by 1980. If both V/STOL aircraft and high speed trains are providing a reasonable level of service by then, nearly three and one-half million passengers per year could be diverted from the regular airplanes. As shown in Figure 4, the number of passengers diverted annually could grow to nearly seven million by 1985 and more than eleven million by 1990. Such diversions would range close to ten percent of the total potential commercial air passengers. FIGURE 4. COMMERCIAL AIRPLANE PASSENGERS DIVERTED WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE REGION: 1980-1990 27-254 O 70 pt. 1---9 |