somehow or other, got a pretty tolerable navy, which, as experience has proved, is no less necessary to that security. I am aware, that she must keep augmenting this navy. She will NOW see, that her bare existence, as an independent nation, depends upon her having, at the end of even five years, a navy of at least 30 ships of the line, with a proportionate number of vessels of war of an inferior size. The notion, that it was her true policy to keep out of the European quarrels must, by this time, be exploded. It was wise to wish it; but wishes and possibilities are different things. She sees what jealousy, what envy, what hatred arising from foreboding fears, she has inspired. She is not to be deceived by the fawning professions, which, for temporary convenience, deep-rooted enmity may assume. She knows that her navy is the infant Hercules, and that it must make haste and grow, or be strangled in the cradle. She knows how easily quarrels are hatched, when people have a mind to quarrel. Knowing all this, and a great deal more that might be mentioned, she will not, in peace, neglect, one moment, to be well prepared for her defence, and thereby preventing, if possible, the recurrence of war. She cannot hide her situation from the world. She cannot go on growing populous and commercial in a corner. The world sees what she will be, if she be left quiet; and, therefore, she may as well begin to prepare without any attempt at disguise. And all this the American Government, and the American people, know as well as I know that I am now writing. I most ardently wish, that there may never more be war between England and America; that the people of the two countries may never more be engaged in shedding each other's blood; that the rivalship may in future consist in the arts of peace, and in acts of hospitality and benevolence. But, without reference to particular foreign countries, it is certain, that, for America to have a chance of remaining at peace, for any length of time, she must be well armed, and, in all respects, prepared for war. This navy will be a considerable expense; but, if it were to cost 50 millions of dollars in the space of five years, how amply would that cost be compensated by the preventing of a war with any power in Europe? Yet, even this expense, which I grant must be incurred to render the country safe, would carry the taxes to a mere trifle compared with ours, and would, besides, be met by a more than proportionate increase of population, trade, navigation, and all the other sources, whence taxes are drawn. How able America is to accomplish this grand object, and to pay the interest of her debt, and even to clear it quite off, at the same time, will appear upon comparing the increase of population and commerce with that of her debt. My materials for doing this are not so ample as I could wish; but, I think, they are sufficient for the purpose. In 1790 the Debt of America was 72 millions of dollars; her population less than four millions; and her exports, domestic and foreign, 19 millions of dollars in amount. In 1800, her population exceeded five millions; her exports 69 millions; and her debt was 82 millions of dollars, she having, in the meanwhile, built, fitted out, and manned, several frigates and other ships of war. In 1810, her population rose to more than seven millions, and her debt sunk down to less than 60 millions of dollars; but her exports fell off to 60 millions of dollars, owing to causes resembling war. Now her population must exceed eight millions; her debt amounts to 108 millions; but, then, she has, during the last period, purchased Louisiana, and acquired a navy of 81 ships of war. What she will naturally be, at the end of a very few years, I must leave your Lordship to say; but what she is now, compared with what she has been, the following table will partly clearly show : N. B.The population of 1815 is computed. The increase from 1810 to 1815 is supposed to have been half as great as that from 1800 to 1810.-The cause of the falling off in the Exports from 1800 to 1810 was, the sort of half car that was going on at the latter period. Our Orders in Council had produced the Nonimportation and Embargo measures, which, of course, diminished the Exports by, probably, nearly one-half. Without pretending to ascertain and to state precisely what the exports of the United States now amount to, it is very clear, that the capacity of America to bear has far exceeded any increase in the demands of the Government. Her exports of domestic produce and manufactures can, at this time, hardly amount to less than 60 millions of dollars, or 15 millions of pounds sterling; so that, if we regard (as our Ministers always pretend to do), the amount of exports as the criterion of the capacity to pay the interest of debt and other taxes, here is America with 15 millions of exports, and an interest of debt of 1,357,9827.; and Great Britain, with an export (including Ireland) of 36,000,000l., and interest of debt of 43,000,000l. But, let us put America in the worst possible light, in order to build upon nothing in the way of conjecture. Let us take her exports now to be no more than they were in the time of embargoes, orders in council, &c. Even then she has an export of domestic produce and manufactures of 9 millions of pounds to set against our 36 millions. Thus, even in this worst of all possible lights, she will stand, compared with England: England Exports. Interest of Debt. £ 43,000,000 5,431,930 Having thus put the matter in a light not to be misunderstood, and to leave no possible ground for cavil, I venture to offer as an opinion, that peace, which will infallibly give new wings to American commerce and navigation, will clip the wings of English commerce and navigation. Great part of what has lately swelled out the latter, consisted of Transports in the pay of the nation, and did, in nowise whatever belong to commerce, and form no part of the means of bearing taxes. We have already seen crowds of sailors going to the Admiralty to complain of want of employment. They have been to the Lord Mayor of London on the same errand! As if he could create commerce! As if he, though a very loyal man, could find work for them, or cause bread to descend from the clouds. Is this the case in America? Oh, no! There peace makes the wharfs full of business. Every man and thing belonging to the sea is called for from twenty voices at once. It is said, that, in order to procure the chance of employment for our native sailors, all foreign sailors are to be sent home. Those in our Navy may be thus disposed of; but, a law must be passed before merchants can be compelled to prefer ours before foreigners; and a law, too, precisely opposed in principle to the laws already in force; and, even in the case of the Navy, violating the principles of common justice, seeing that our laws make British subjects (as far as rights and privileges go), of all foreign mariners who may have been a certain time on board of English ships. " Every foreign seaman, "who, in time of war, serves two years on board a British ship is ipso "facto NATURALIZED." This is the LAW; and, therefore, if it be true, as the newspapers tell us it is, that the Government is going to send home all the foreign seamen to make room for the employment of our own, it is going to do a deed, which I will leave your Lordship, or anybody else to characterise; for I will not beggar my sentiments by doing it in the way in which alone I should dare to do it. But, if this deed were to be done. If it were to take its place in the list of the deeds of 1815; the consequence would be, that the seamen, thus sent home, would be ready to man the ships and carry on the commerce of other countries, who will, now that the seas will be open again, stand in need of them. Peace, so far from reviving commerce, will, in all human probability, have a contrary effect in England. The late wars have been different in their effects on commerce from former wars. They swept the sea of all commerce but our own. They made all the world tributary to us. The profits of the world's commerce centered here By the means of our loans and taxes we obtained a force sufficient to effect these purposes. But, this cannot continue in peace. Other nations will have each its share of commerce. Our Navy, withdrawn from the Ocean, will leave the nations of the world at liberty to communicate with each other. And, as every ship of ours must sail loaded with a part of our debt, other nations will be able to sail and carry goods cheaper. If we attempt to prevent this by force, it is war again. More loans. If we remain quiet, we sink in the general scale, and particularly with regard to America, which must keep rising in the commercial scale. As to Manufactures, whether the Government of America will pass laws to protect their own against ours I know not. That will depend more upon its view of political effects on a larger scale than that of mere custom-house calculations. But, it is pretty certain, that something will be done in this way, as the President recommended it in his last Message to the Congress. So that our manufactures, going loaded with their full share of our erroneous and everlasting Debt, together with freight, insu rance, and shipping expenses, and having to encounter a pretty heavy duty in America, must, even as things now stand, have a hard struggle to make their way to any great extent. At any rate they will go upon a very different footing from that on which they formerly went. And yet you would lay a tax upon the Wool, of which the principal of manufactures is made. And you applaud the tax upon Corn, which tax enhances the wages of the man who makes the woollen goods. Yes, such is the state of things, in which you would adopt measures to make woollens higher in price than they now are. The inducements to migrate to America are so great, that everything should be avoided which tends to discourage the manufacturers at home. You will say that there are laws to punish those who entice manufucturers to go out of the kingdom, and also those who attempt to export machines. What use these laws are of your Lordship will easily guess, now that you have seen so many machines at work in America. In 1811, I told your Lordship that this would be the case. I was at that time (Nov. 2, 1811) endeavouring to prevent the war; and in answer to those who pretended to laugh at the effects of an embargo in America, I made the following remarks, now well worthy of being called to mind : "In the articles, upon which I have been observing, mention is made of a "design on the part of the American Government to lay an Embargo, at "which measure our writers affect to laugh. They say that America has tried "it before, and was glad to abandon it.-They do not advert to the change that "has since taken place in the situation of America; they do not perceive, that, "since the year 1807, America has reared manufactories nearly equal to the supply of her own wants. Lord Sheffield, at the last Lewes Wool Fair, fell "into the same mistake. He there told his hearers, that America must deal with Ius for cloth; that she could obtain it in no other country; that, if she excluded "our woollens for a year or two, she must make up for it by larger importations afterwards. How deceived he was! How little did he know of what had "taken place in America during the last four years! How little did he know of "the immense quantity of woollens, since that time, fabricated in the American "States! The present non-importation law will tend to increase the manufactur66 ing establishments in America; manufacturers will follow the manufactories; "and capital will follow, too, where capital is wanted. Of the raw material "America will have a superabundance, and manufacturers are soon taught."The following paragraph from the TIMES, three days ago, will afford a speci "men of what is, and long has been, going on: Yesterday se'nnight a discovery “was made at Liverpool, which is of considerable importance to our manufactories. "In consequence of private information received by Mr. Miller, Superintendent "of Police, at Liverpool, that a man of the name of Hugh Wagstaff had arrived "in Liverpool from Manchester, for the purpose of conveying implements used "in manufactures to America; Mr. Miller found Wagstaff out, and watched his "movements. He observed him go several times on board the American ship "called the Mount Vernon, bound to New York. The information Mr. Miller "had received stated, that the implements were in boxes; and yesterday se'n"night he observed Wagstaff assisting in loading a cart with boxes, and then "watched them to the water-side, and continued his observations till he saw "some of the boxes put on board the Mount Vernon; the offence not being "complete till the boxes were put on board. Mr. Miller then took Wagstaff "into custody, and seized twenty-three boxes. On opening them they proved "to contain spindles, which are used in the spinning of cotton. The prisoner was "taken before James Drinkwater, Esq. the Mayor, and has been committed to "Laucaster Castle, for trial at the ensuing Assizes, under the Act of 21 Geo. III. "chap. 37. Does the reader believe that these spindles would have been pur"chased if there had not been hands in America to use them? The Non-im"portation Act of America would have prevented the landing of the spindles; "but the shipper knew, doubtless, beforehand, that he could ship them without "risk, and that a relaxation of the law would be obtained in his favour.'-Well · "the spindles will not go in this instance; but, is it to be believed, that prevention will take place in all cases? And, if that were possible, what then? Why, then the Spindle-makers would go to the place where spindles are "wanted to be made." Now, my Lord, who was right and who wrong? I do not know what was done to Mr. Wagstaff; but, I know this, that I have shown you 600 cotton spindles at work in one mill on the Pennepack Creek; and, you may see, that they are an article of common sale in that country, whither Mr. Wagstaff, less than four years ago, was shipping them. This shows how utterly impracticable is the enforcement of any such laws. I remember a Yorkshire Clothier, who very kindly called to see me, in Newgate, in 1810, 1811 and 1812, while I was imprisoned for two years for writing about the flogging of the English Local Militia-Men, at the town of Ely, under the superintendence of German Troops. To this gentleman I used to foretel, that America would soon make her own cloth. He smiled, and said he supposed she would in half a century. There are only four years gone yet of the half-century. I have forgotten his name; but he has not forgotten mine; and, if he will write to me, when he comes to London again, I will send him up my Albany suit of clothes, that he may judge how long it will be before his half-century will expire. Nevertheless, I suppose, that a great deal of woollen goods will still be exported to America from England, unless new obstacles are created. But, it will, perhaps, require but very little to turn the balance against us. Beyond a certain price we cannot go, as it is now evident, for it is now proved, that America can, and does, make large quantities of woollen goods of all sorts. Let her demands diminish much and the manufacturers will follow. They will go, and they must go, where they are wanted; and, besides, by going thither, they pay off their share of our Debt; or, which is the same thing to them, they leave us, who remain, to pay the interest of it, till they come back. As to working manufacturers, they follow each other like the sheep of a flock. One goes; he writes home to another, that he may dine every day upon good meat, and once a week, at least, upon turkey or goose. Away goes another; and so on. And, the worst of it is, that the young, strong, unmarried and enterprising go, leaving behind those who are aged, feeble, timid, or encumbered with numerous families. Those who go will be such as have full confidence in their health and abilities; while those that remain will have an eye to the poor-house. As to mechanics and manufacturers, emigration is a sieve, that lets through the grain and leaves the chaff behind. And how is this great evil to be prevented? I do not know, that it is to be prevented at all; but, I am sure it is not to be prevented by laws made to punish emigration. If prevented, it must be by affording the manufacturers full employment at home; this cannot be, unless we can sell cheaper than any other country; and, if wool and food be a great deal dearer here than in any other country, it is impossible that we can long continue to sell cheaper. The obvious conclusion, then, is, that we should do everything in our power to keep down the price of the raw material, and of the food of the manufacturer; and, therefore, that, not only ought there to be no tax laid upon wool, but that the Corn Bill ought to be repealed. And now, my Lord, in taking my leave of your Lordship, suffer me to express my hope, that, after comparing the undeniable facts, contained in these letters, with your prophecies of 1811, you will resolve never to prophesy again; or, at least, if you should, that the Wool-growers will not again keep their wool, at your recommendation, in expectation of a higher price. Lord Chichester, it appears, told these persons, assembled |