XLIII.

1848.

162.

this system

progress and

ence.

CHAP. from which they must always be principally derived; timidity is impressed upon its rulers from the dread of impending danger; and the foreign-fed nation, tremEffects of bling for its subsistence, comes at last to submit to on national any insult rather than face hostilities with its distant independ- bread-maker, or the producer of the chief part of the raw material required for its manufactures. How exactly this state of things was exemplified in the last ages of the Roman empire need be told to no scholar; how early it has commenced with the introduction of the Free-trade system into Great Britain, may be judged of from the facts, that before it had been ten years in operation, the imports of foreign grain had come from almost nothing in ordinary seasons, to be from 7,000,000 to 10,000,000 quarters annually, being from a third to a half of the national subsistence; that the production of cereal crops to nearly the same amount had declined in the British Islands; and that while the imports and exports of the produce of towns had signally increased, emigration* had become permanent at the

* ANNUAL EMIGRATION, AND PAUPERS, EXCLUDING VAGRANTS, RELIEVED IN GREAT BRITAIN AND IRELAND FROM 1846 TO 1856.

XLIII.

1848.

rate of above 260,000 souls a-year: nearly 3,000,000 CHAP. persons, chiefly in the prime of life, had left our shores in the last ten years, being more than triple those who had emigrated in the preceding ten ;* and the persons in receipt of parochial relief in the two islands had never been less than 1,000,000 annually, sometimes above 1,500,000.

163.

must con

the policy

and grow

It is generally expected by the Free-trade party that these distressing consequences will be temporary only; Protection and that they will cease with the adoption of a similar tinue to be liberal commercial policy by other nations. A little con- of young sideration, however, must show that these expectations in States. are not, for a very long period at least, likely to be realised. As Free Trade is the cry of old and wealthy States, so, and for a similar reason, Protection is the cry of

of young and poor ones. Both are actuated by the interests of the dominant classes in these respective and opposite states of society. The consumers being the ruling class in the old State, Free Trade is inscribed on its banners; the producers being the dominant one in the rising one, Protection is its war-cry. To expect that they will adopt our policy is as hopeless as for them to expect that we will adopt theirs. Accordingly, while old and wealthy Britain has permanently embraced the Free-trade policy, Russia has met it by duties amounting almost to prohibition; America with a fixed import-duty on every

EMIGRATION IN THE TEN PRECEDING YEARS (1836-1845).

+ See Customs Tariffs of all Nations, by C. N. NEWDEGATE, Esq., M.P., London, 1855; a work of vast labour, research, and accuracy, of the highest political and social importance, and every way worthy of its able and accomplished author.

XLIII.

CHAP. article of 30 per cent; France with duties also amounting to prohibition; and Prussia with duties varying practically from 30 to 50 per cent.

1848.

164. Which is the result, on their

cessity.

They

It is no wonder they do so; if they acted otherwise, their rising manufactures would at once be extinguished by the British steam-engine. They will take our gold part, of ne- to any amount, but little else. Accordingly, our exports to the countries from which we most largely import grain are surprisingly small; a clear proof that Free Trade has had nothing to do with the increase of our exports, which has undoubtedly taken place since its adoption.* say to us in substance, "It is all very well for you who have climbed up to the summit of manufacturing greatness, by means of your coal and protection, to give it up when you are too high to have any reason, in manufactures, to dread foreign competition; and you have need of foreign grain to keep down the price of your own. When we enjoy similar advantages, or have attained as great eminence, we shall do the same. In the mean time you must allow us to adopt the policy by which your industry was sheltered for two centuries; and when it has produced similar results to us, we may make a similar change."

If we would correctly estimate the effect of Sir R. Peel's commercial policy upon our foreign trade, we must examine its effects from its introduction in 1846 to 1852, because then it was the sole change in operation. In the latter

* EXPORTS TO, AND IMPORTS FROM, THE UNDERMENTIONED STATES

£ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ 1851 14,362,976 23,616,435 1,287,704 5,199,486 2,028,463 8,083,112 503,531 2,817,855 1852 16,567,737 29,183,079 1,099,917 6,403,068 2,731,286 6,590,844 581,884 1,972,332 1853 23,257,487 27,458,722 1,228,404 9,020,841 1,371,817 8,615,799 579,588 3,663,561 1854 21,127,631 30,060,613 54,291 2,134,028† 1,406,932 7,411,358 798,434 4,274,173

† War.

-Statistical Abstract, No. IV., 1842-1856; and Trade and Navigation Reports, 1855, pp. 7, 9.

XLIII.

1848.

165.

of Free

Trade must

be judged of before 1852.

year the gold fields of California and Australia came into CHAP.
operation, which have in the next four years thrown
£100,000,000 of additional gold into the circulation of the
world, the greater part of which has either directly or The effects
indirectly found its way to this country. The effect of
this immense addition to the currency of the world, to the
industry of all nations, and in an especial manner of the
British Islands, has been prodigious. It has raised our
exports from £58,000,000 in 1851 to £97,000,000 in
1854, £95,000,000 in 1855, and £115,000,000 in
1856;* and augmented our imports from £157,000,000
in the former year to £172,000,000 in the latter. Be-
tween 1846 and 1852 the increase of exports, when Free
Trade alone was operating, was very small, although the
imports chiefly in grain had greatly increased. That the
great increase which has since taken place is the result
of the general impulse given to industry by the rise of
prices consequent on the gold discoveries, and is scarcely
at all to be ascribed to British free-trade, is decisively
proved by the facts that it did not take place to any
great extent till the gold discoveries came into operation,
and that since that time it has been universal over the
world, and not peculiar to the British Islands. And in
truth the increase since the change in the value of money,
which has been to the extent of nearly 30 per cent, has
rendered this increase in the declared value of com-
modities rather apparent than real; for the price put

* EXPORTS TO, AND IMPORTS FROM, THE BRITISH ISLANDS
FROM 1853 To 1856.

-Parliamentary Returns, 1856; and Statistical Abstract, No. IV., 1852-1856,

P. 12.

CHAP. upon exported articles has increased also, if not in a similar, at least in a very great proportion.*

XLIII. 1848.

However much opinions may vary on many of the conclusions now deduced from the facts of contemporary history, there is one point upon which all must be agreed, and which is of vital importance to the future indepen

* COMPARATIVE INCREASE OF FRENCH AND BRITISH EXPORTS.

Here France has increased her exports under Protection upwards of 95 per cent, while Great Britain has only increased hers by 58 per cent under Free Trade.

COMPARATIVE PROGRESS OF FRANCE, AMERICA, AND GREAT BRITAIN.

£ £ £ 1846 36,800,000 34,100,000 25,352,458 23,643,316 1847 39,000,000 35,600,000 30,530,341 33,051,746 1848 22,300,000 33,200,000 32.291.443 32,090.923 132,617,681 1849 31,200,000 41,300,000 28,200,000 28,100,000 164,539,504 1850 31,200.000 44,900,000 34,700,000 28,400,000 100,460,433 71,367,885 1851 29,400,000 50,600,000 42,100,000 34,900,000 110,484,997 74,448,722 1852 39,400,000 49,300,000 41,500,000 36,900,000 109,331,158 78,076,854 1853 44,100,000 54,500,000 52,500,000 40,700,000 123,099,313 98,933,781 1854 46,300,000 50,400,000 59,600,000 46,600,000 124,338,478 97,184,726 1855 45,957,000 62,080,000 51,600,000 38,500,000 117,402,366 95,688,085

£

£

£

132,288,345

57.786,875

126,130,956

58,842,377

52.849.445

63,596,025

-Porter, 357, 400, 405; NewmaRSH, v. 653; Parl. Stat., Trade and Navigation, 1855.

QUARTERS OF WHEAT IMPORTED TO MICHAELMAS OF EACH YEAR
FROM 1851 to 1856.

‡ Official value for comparison sake. The real value of imports in these two years was £152,519,000 and £143,545,000 respectively.