XLVII. 1847. CHAP. that I see no remedy to this state of things. I once hoped that Italy might have furnished the means of extricating ourselves from it; but the best thing we can now do is, to set sail and leave it, because if we remained we should be obliged to make common cause with the retrograde party, which would be attended in France with disastrous consequences. Those unhappy Spanish iii. 321, 323. marriages! We have not yet drained the cup of bitterness which they have compelled us to drink." 1* 1 Regnault, 4. Views of the King on The dangers here ably summed up were so evident that every one who had the least of a reflecting miud the subject. Saw them distinctly, and the King was not insensible to their existence; but he did not see how they were to be avoided. Concession to the republican party, and a general change in external policy, so earnestly pressed upon him by the Liberals, would lead at once to a general war, which was not to be thought of now that Great Britain was alienated by the Spanish marriages; and it would at once provoke resistance from the majority in the Chambers elected by the middle class, which was the only real support of his throne. Influenced by this consideration, he saw no alternative but to persist in the system of resistance, and for that purpose to secure the support of the army by indulgences, and of the Chamber by corruption. To effect these objects his whole efforts, during the last months of his reign, were unceasingly directed. Of course the very success with which they were for the Cassagnac, time attended only widened the breach between the la Chute de Government and the people, and increased the general lippe, i. 25; discontent. The King, though he persisted in his policy iii. 323,324, as a matter of necessity, was far from being insensible to Histoire de Louis Phi Regnault, the dangers with which it was attended, and often said to The Author gives this letter as he finds it quoted in the French historians, without guaranteeing its authenticity, which, judging from internal evidence, he is inclined to doubt, for it looks very like an ex post facto composition. Whether it is so or not, it is at least an able résumé of the views of the Liberal party at this period, and the principal grounds of their complaints against the Government of the King. XLVII. his ministers, with a mournful voice, "I see no supporters CHAP. of order forming behind you; you are the last of the Romans." 1847. 5. of the crops 1846. 1845. Accustomed to see public feeling influenced chiefly by impulses derived from foreign affairs, and anything which Deficiency touched the national honour, the French Government in 1845 and at this period was by no means sufficiently alive to the consequences of the monetary crisis arising from the like deficiency of the crops, especially that of potatoes, which at the same period was attended with such disastrous effects in Great Britain and Ireland. The consequence was, a very considerable rise of prices of all sorts of subsistence, which at length, though after a long delay, forced the Government, in the close of that year, to take off all duties on the importation of grain. This measure, however, could only relieve the scarcity Nov. 17, after time had elapsed for cargoes to arrive from the corn-growing countries; and this was much extended by the effects of a severe frost in the Euxine and Sea of Azof, which stopped the navigation of those waters by the accumulation of floating ice with which they were charged. The consequence was, that it was not till February 1846 that the long-wished-for cargoes began to arrive, and meanwhile the people were reduced to very great straits by the high price of provisions. To diminish. the pressure, Government issued orders transferring the purchase of wheat for the army, which amounted annually to 500,000 quintals, and for the navy, which exceeded 100,000, from the interior to foreign ports, for the whole of 1846 and 1847. But this, though in the circumstances a wise, was only a prospective measure; and meanwhile prices rose so seriously that the municipality of Paris, to preserve the public tranquillity, were reduced to the des- 1 Moniteur, perate expedient, often adopted by them, of forcibly re- Nov. 18, ducing the price of grain, and paying the difference be- 27, 1845; tween the selling and the real price out of the corpora- iii. 139,143. tion funds.' Bread of the best quality was by this means and Dec. Regnault, XLVII. CHAP. maintained at 80 centimes, or 16 sous the two kilogrammes; but to effect this the city had to borrow the enormous sum of 25,000,000 francs, or £1,000,000 sterling. 1847. 6. the potato crop in 1846, and monetary crisis. These evils were sufficiently serious in themselves; but Failure of they became much more pressing, and led to other still more serious consequences, in the following year. The potato crop in France, as in Ireland, failed much more extensively in 1846 than it had done in 1845; and the consequences, as in Great Britain, were much aggravated by the railway mania, which at the same period, as on this side of the Channel, had seized upon the country. The importation of grain went on largely during the whole of that year, to supply the deficiency of domestic produce; and the consequence was a drain upon the metallic treasures of the Bank to pay for the importation of food. To such a length did this go that, from the official statement published in the Moniteur, it appeared that the specie in the Bank amounted, on 26th December, only to 71,000,000 francs, while its liabilities for notes. and deposits were 368,000,000 francs. The danger was immediate and imminent; and in order to guard against it, the Bank in the first week of 1847 raised their discounts from 4 to 5 per cent. This sudden advance, which was not expected, excited great alarm in Paris, which was not allayed till the Emperor of Russia, in March 17. March, made an offer to purchase 50,000,000 francs 1 Moniteur, worth of French Government stock, with gold stored up 1846, and in St Petersburg, the produce of the Oural Mountains. March 25, This offer was accepted, and the stock was bought at the rate of 115 francs 75 centimes per cent.' This ample supply of gold from the Russian treasures compensated the drain arising from the importation of food, and went far to suspend the crisis, while the Government also Jan. 2, 1847. Dec. 31, Jan. 2, and 1847; Re gnault, iii. 144, 146; Ann. Hist. xxx. 221, 223. * On the 26th December 1845 the specie in the Bank had been 187,000,000 francs, or £7,420,000. The diminution in the year 1846, therefore, had been 116,000,000 francs, or £4,640,000.-Ann. Hist. xxx. 222. derived benefit from it by the confidence which it evinced CHAP. in the stability and resources of France. XLVII. 1847. state of Govern The relief afforded by this seasonable supply of gold 7. from Russia, however, could in the nature of things only Financial be temporary as long as the causes which occasioned a 1847, and great drain of specie continued to operate, a continuance great loans of the danger was to be apprehended. This, accordingly, for by the was what occurred. The financial state of the country ment. in 1847 was anything but reassuring, and clearly evinced how severely the crisis which had been passed had affected the springs of public prosperity. The expenses of the year reached the enormous amount of 1,405,336,062 1Ann. Hist. xxx. 32, 33; francs, and the estimate for 1848 was 1,446,210,170.1 Doc. Hist. The deplorable system, which had been so long pursued, of borrowing to the extent of four or five millions sterling every year, and augmenting the floating debt by that amount, without any prospect of paying it off, now fell with accumulated force upon the Government; and the weight was felt the more sensibly that the high prices of provisions, which were double their usual level, lessened the resources of the people, and the vast importation of grain and export of gold curtailed credit in every department. The statement of the Finance Minister in January 1847 admitted a floating uncovered debt of 500,000,000 francs, and he estimated the deficit of 1847 at 117,000,000 francs. In this embarrassed state of the public treasury it was impossible to continue the allocation of 246,000,000 francs, which, under the law of 1842, should this year have been devoted to railways and other public works, and the sum devoted to that department was diminished by 100,000,000 francs. Yet, even at this reduced rate, the floating debt in the course of the year 1847 mounted up to 700.000,000 francs, while the great diminution in Moniteur, the sum allotted to public works proved a serious aggrava- 1847; tion of the sufferings of the labouring classes of the people.2 Ann. Hist. No resource remained but a great loan; and by a law passed 225. on 8th August in this year, no less than 350,000,000 2 Aug. 9, and Nov. 9, xxx. 220, CHAP. francs were authorised to be borrowed. The great reducXLVII. tion, however, in the expenditure on public works enabled 1847. 8. issue of June 10, 1847. the Government to restrict the loan to 250,000,000 francs which was contracted for on the 8th November, by the house of Rothschild, at the rate of 75 francs 25 centimes for each £100 of 3 per-cent stock. These great loans relieved the difficulties of the treaEnlarged sury, but they by no means lessened the severity of the bank-notes. monetary crisis upon the country. On the contrary, by draining away so large a part of the capital of the country to public purposes, they diminished in a proportional degree that portion of it which could be devoted to the alleviation of private embarrassments. The contraction of credit, and consequent diminution of the currency, was felt as a sore and constantly-increasing evil during the last half of the year. It is now evident to what this calamitous state of things was owing. It arose from the vast increase in the importation of grain, in consequence chiefly of the failure of the potato crop, which was triple what it had been in the preceding year, and which, by occasioning a constant drain upon the specie of the Bank for its payment, of necessity occasioned a corresponding diminution in the circulation. The effects were soon felt in every branch of industry. Already one half of the railways in progress were stopped, or going on with only half their number of labourers. So stringent did the crisis become, that it would to all appearance have led, as it had done in Great Britain, to an entire suspension of credit and destruction of industry, when it was arrested by a measure, as bold as it was judicious, which at once applied the appropriate remedy to the evil. Towards the close of the year, the Chamber was prevailed on to sanction the issue of notes for 200 francs (£8), in addition to * GRAIN IMPORTED INTO FRANCE IN 1846 AND 1847. Quintals. 1846, -Ann. Hist. xxx. 226. 2,332,000 6,920,000 |