II. THE SUPPLY/REQUIREMENTS PROBLEM IN

MATERIALS

All energy- and product-oriented economies are heavily dependent on materials. The maintenance and expansion of our already prosperous economy will draw on materials to a substantial degree, although, as that economy is balanced more toward services than products, the rate of growth of demands for materials will not parallel that of the rate of growth of the economy as a whole. Nonetheless, the increasing population in the United States, as well as the growth of the economy, will lead to increased, and not lessening, demands for materials.

Simultaneously, the United States has long recognized, as a national objective, the desirability of encouraging the development of prosperous economies abroad. Despite the ravages of World War II, an advanced stage of industrial development enabled European nations to ingest large amounts of United States economic assistance and translate that assistance into the increased productivity of goods and, more recently, services. Accordingly, European demands for materials have gone up very rapidly on a per capita basis, probably more rapidly than that of the United States.

By their very nature, the developing countries, at a lower stage of technology, have responded less rapidly and less efficiently to an influx of support from the United States and from other countries. Nevertheless, their economies have grown and so have their demands for materials. As many of these economies approach a point of increasing selfsufficiency in an economic sense, it can be expected that they will have explosive demands for new materials in order to satisfy the needs of their burgeoning populations for goods. As a basis for expansion of their economies, many of these countries have become international suppliers of raw materials. As their economies mature, more and more of those raw materials will be upgraded in order that the advantages to the local economy of adding value to the export will be realized.

While the United States is still an important producer of raw materials, it is increasingly dependent on world supplies. In the changing raw materials economy of the world, demand threatens to rise faster than supply; the economic security of the United States, to the extent that it depends on materials from abroad, is thereby in jeopardy. Fortunately, the higher degree of technological sophistication in the United States makes it possible to increase the degree of interchangeability of materials so that more available materials can be substituted for less available ones. This element of technology has reduced the tension and the dependence of the United States on some of the products which are available largely or solely from abroad. Nevertheless, the competition for materials can be expected to grow and, as the underdeveloped world becomes more mature economically, to grow at an increasing rate.

Programs of education, technological research, economic analysis, and political policy formulation should now be in the process of development in order to insure that the United States anticipates the alternative futures which it will confront as a result of its internal growth and the growth of the rest of the world, and the combined demand of the United States and world economies for raw materials.

Materials in the earth's crust are finite in their extent. But since most materials are not used up but can be recycled, the limits to their continued availability-apart from costs of extraction and inflexibility in patterns of use are set much further out. The levels of reuse are determined largely by ability to overcome difficulties in recovery and reprocessing that impose varying costs. Science and technology can help to overcome costs of primary extraction and secondary recovery. However, they need to be purposefully developed, long in advance of need, because the leadtime in making technological changes in materials usage patterns is inherently long. Quick, forced changes are likely to be costly, inefficient, wasteful, and altogether unsatisfactory. What dislocations in materials supplies can be anticipated? Worldwide population and income growth can be expected to cause increased needs for materials. Per capita consumption of many materials in the United States is as much as a hundred times that in some populous regions abroad. Economic development in lagging regions will surely reduce this disparity. As world patterns of supply and demand alter, there will be awkward dislocations. These can be eased by discoveries of new sources of materials, by improved technology of mineral extraction, and by more effective recycling and reuse. The injurious effects of such dislocations can be minimized by anticipating them, by taking precautionary measures in advance, and by adopting appropriate policies when they occur. (See app. F.)

The precise strategies to be followed to meet any particular crisis will depend on the circumstances at the time. The more complete and reliable the information that is available at the time concerning all aspects of materials, the better able the Nation will be to choose the best strategy. At the present time, information is less than comprehensive and up to date on per capita consumption of materials in the various countries of the world, the rate of change in these figures, and projections for long-range future changes in the supply and requirements of essential materials. Nor is there available adequate means of applying this information-if it were available to afford guidance to applied research and technological development, to modify the policies and operation of the national stockpile, or to develop other possible options in advance of need.

The Paley Commission concentrated its attention on an analysis of the supply/demand problem of the United States, based on projections of the growth of its economy, the changing demand for materials, and the changing pattern of supply. While there has been much subsequent study of the supply/demand issue by a variety of institutions in and out of Government, there is still no provision for the maintenance of an inventory of U.S. sources of materials which takes into account various future economic and demand situations. Hence, the supply/ demand issue will have to be given appropriate attention by any future commission established to study national minerals and materials policy problems.

III. THE PROBLEM OF THE INTERACTION OF
MATERIALS AND ENVIRONMENT

Uses of materials have increasingly become recognized in the United States as a major facet of environmental quality. The interactions of materials and environment are complex. Scientific inquiry has only begun to provide parameters for investigation.

In a broad way, the problem can be characterized: An increasing population, with a rising living standard, is consuming and discarding an increasing variety and quantity of materials. The results are an increased quantity of municipal and industrial wastes: increased loads of effluent to be carried away by surface streams and by the atmosphere, and increased loads of solid wastes to be dumped on land or in the surface waters of the earth. These forms of waste disposal are causing an increase in the rates of physical deterioration of air, water, and land, and biological impairment of plants and animals in the degraded environment. (See app. G.)

While major industries have been organized to produce materials and products made from them, limited attention has been paid to the ultimate disposition of materials. Unfortunately, the total cycle from production to disposal has not adequately been put into perspective; our technology, economics, and public policy have emphasized production and initial processing. Since materials disposal is currently having such a profound effect on the environment, because of its steeply rising scale, a new analysis of relevant technological, economic, and policy issues would be appropriate.

Moreover, the quality of environmental degradants is also changing. For example, technology has created many new chemicals, which put new impurities into the air and water. The scientific determination of the ecological consequences of any particular level of any single impurity is a huge undertaking. To determine the consequences of all impurities, singly and in various combinations and synergisms, is beyond the reach of human capability. Yet solutions must be found to the major problems implied.

As a general proposition, we should do the best we can to hold environmental degradation at tolerable levels as we can define them, with periodic review as to where they are, and a clear understanding of the implications. This raises such problems as identifying the agents and their physical and economic consequences, and such issues as conflict of action with other objectives.

IV. SUSTAINED DEFINITION AND ACHIEVEMENT OF A COHERENT SET OF NATIONAL MATERIALS GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

In summary, materials their availability, use, and disposal-are significantly related to national goals of physical health and wellbeing, economic health and prosperity, national defense and security. Events and developments are causing many impacts on these relationships. Many agencies of Government share the numerous func tions that involve materials. Decisions are being made piecemeal, with partial information. There is no central source of information about materials to warn of approaching dangers, to call for needed corrective actions, to search for preferred alternative courses of action, to relate national goals and objectives for materials with the broader goals of the United States. Ultimately, national materials policies must continue to rely on private industry for their implementation. The role of Government is to provide information on what needs to be done, and why, and what the constraints are; in some cases, Government may need to enforce the constraints, assist in the motivation, or fund research. But the primary initiative will remain with industry itself.

(A) IDENTIFICATION AND CONTINUING APPRAISAL OF NATIONAL GOALS OF MATERIALS

A number of general goals can be stated for the materials posture of the United States. Detailed quantitative goals will always be short-range in character, and even broad qualitative goals need to be adjusted from time to time. Nevertheless, it can be said that U.S. goals in materials today encompass the following:

A healthy, efficient, domestic materials-producing industry; Assurance of adequate supplies of materials at prices established in competitive markets;

Assurance of reserves of materials for military production, under the conditions of supply that might prevail in time of war emergency;

Efficient use by manufacturing industry of the materials being processed;

With due regard for national security and foreign policy considerations, a national trade policy that permits materials users to draw their supplies from sources of lowest cost;

Avoidance of sudden, wide, and costly fluctuations in materials supply/demand relationships, in materials costs, and materials production and supply patterns; and

Avoidance of the discharge of waste materials into the environment in amounts and ways that threaten to impair human health and comfort, injure the ecological balance, and degrade the esthetic quality of man's surroundings.

There are undoubtedly other important goals that should be added to this list. The group made no effort to develop an exhaustive enumeration of such goals, and suggests that an important function of the proposed commission would be to prepare a more definitive statement in this regard.

(B) COMPLETENESS, APPROPRIATENESS, AND COORDINATED MANAGEMENT OF NATIONAL MATERIALS PROGRAMS

Numerous Government agencies have responsibilities in the field of materials. For example, at least 19 departments and agencies spon sor applied research in materials, 15 are involved in long-range policy planning, 20 perform materials information management functions. The potential for conflict, duplication, and serious gaps in materials programs is clearly present. (See app. L.)

(c) TECHNOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL CHANGES AFFECTING THE MATERIALS SUPPLY/REQUIREMENTS BALANCE

As the demographic configuration of the United States changesfrom agrarian and semi-rural to an urban civilization, important shifts occur in materials problems and program priorities. Different kinds of housing are needed. Transportation requirements change. Agricultural production becomes more capital-intensive. Recreation needs are both different and greater. Congested communities require more efficient patterns of materials flow, with a lessened volume of residual wastes.

World supplies of materials are also undergoing changes, in response to both political and economic forces. Political uncertainties and nationalistic trends render some resource areas insecure. Some of the principal sources of tin, antimony, copper, nickel, bauxite, niobium, manganese, chromium, and tungsten have a low confidence factor. The world may not, as a whole, be pinched for resources, but there are likely to be dislocations in the years ahead. Will they be of short or prolonged duration? What can be done in advance to anticipate and minimize their adverse impacts?

Another question concerns the priority of programs to develop the resources of the oceans and the ocean floor. How important is this new source for strengthening the U.S. position in materials? What kind of legal and institutional regime would best serve the broad interests of the United States in developing these new opportunities? From the aspect of national policy, the three fields of materials supply, engineering choice of materials in design, and waste disposal may be related. Engineering design practices, for example, may reduce waste volume. Ways of processing wastes can reduce dependence on new supply. Selection of materials in designs can help to extend reserves. Since all aspects of materials are of public concern, it would seem to make sense to look for opportunities of high effectiveness and low cost to accomplish these related purposes. However, at present there is no central point from which to coordinate a concerted effort. (See app. H.)

There is a need to improve the predictability of prospects of all aspects of materials. This kind of forecasting provides a basis for