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during the three years from 1911 to 1913 was 131,000.1 If the estimate of Mr. White be accepted, account must be taken of this "invisible" import of $131,000,000 per annum during the selected period. From this amount, however, a deduction must be made for the "effects and cash" of emigrants from Canada, most of whom enter the United States. During the three years 1911-13, the average annual number of immigrant arrivals in the United States from Canada was 62,790.2 There is also a considerable return movement back into the United States on the part of American citizens who have emigrated to Canada. During the two years ending June 30, 1911, this back-flow of Americans from Canada was equal, numerically, to one-third of the outward movement. If this ratio be adopted as approximately applicable during the period under consideration, the number of American emigrants returning from Canada averaged about 43,000 per year. The total arrivals therefore in the United States from Canada during these years averaged 105,000. The fact should be borne in mind that the typical Canadian emigrant seeking a home in the United States, is a man possessing little beyond ambition, and that the American returning from a brief sojourn in Canada is normally one who has been disappointed in his search for better conditions. Accordingly the estimate that these two classes of arrivals in the United States bring with them capital not exceeding $500 per head will probably be deemed liberal. Proceeding on this assumption, the total capital carried annually from Canada into the United States by Canadian emigrants and American settlers returning from the Dominion may be estimated to average about $50,000,000. On account, therefore, of the immigration and
1 Canada Year Book, 1913, p. 105.
2 Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1913, p. 96.
'Husband, American Economic Review, Supplement, March, 1912, p. 84.
emigration movements between the two countries, there is a resultant net "invisible" import of about $80,000,000 per year into Canada. It must be admitted that this is, in a degree, a conjectural estimate.
An "invisible" item which, because of insufficient data, must be approached with caution is that of private remittances both into and out of Canada. During the three fiscal years 1911-13 the value of money orders issued in Canada and payable in other countries averaged annually somewhat over $32,000,000; whereas the value of money orders issued in other countries and payable in Canada, during the same period, averaged each year $8,700,000. From these items accordingly we find an average net outflow from Canada of $24,000,000. There is no available information, however, which shows what proportion of these orders is represented by business and private remittances, nor is it at all certain that all private remittances flowed through this channel.
There are other "invisible" items sufficiently important to merit notice. Canada is obliged each year to meet considerable charges on account of the carriage in foreign ships of much of her over-seas trade. On the other hand, the annual earnings of the Canadian merchant marine represent an inflow of some importance. Again, Canada each year serves as a vacation land for thousands of tourists whose various expenditures may be regarded as a not unimportant "invisible" import. Naturally there is also a corresponding export in the expenditures by Canadians in the United States and Europe.
Unfortunately, however, so far as it can be discovered, there are no published statistics nor even
1 Canada Year Book, 1913, p. 493.
? The following authorities were unanimous in declaring the total absence of statistical data concerning these items; the Editor of The Monetary Times (Toronto), the Census and Statistics Office (Ottawa), the Canadian Department of Trade and Commerce, and the Department of Marine and Fisheries.
official approximate estimates pertaining to the "invisible" imports and exports referred to above. Accordingly the attempt to handle such items must be based in considerable degree on reasonably sane guess-work.
For the purpose of the present inquiry the following compromise plan will perhaps be deemed reasonable. It is probably true in respect to the shipping items that the annual charges which Canada is called upon to meet, for services rendered by foreign shipping interests, are in excess of that portion of the annual earnings of Canadian ships derived from the carriage of goods of foreign countries. At the same time, it is doubtless true that the expenditures of tourists and other visitors annually in Canada surpass in volume the outflow of capital on account of the expenditures of Canadians in other countries. Accordingly we may offset the former balance against Canada, on account of shipping charges, by the latter balance in favor of Canada. This adjustment probably involves a not unduly large margin of
The results may be epitomized in the tabular form on page 790.
The resultant total net ("unexplained ") balance of $8,000,000 is to be attributed to the margin of error admittedly present in the calculation in respect to the shipping and tourist items.
Canada owes much to the British investor, if only because he has almost entirely financed its extensive railway system. In contrast to the experience of India, however, Canada, despite its heavy borrowings in London on account of railways, does not import its railway materials to any large extent from the United Kingdom. Canada, having developed an important
1 Field, Capital Investments in Canada, p. 118.
APPROXIMATE BALANCE SHEET OF CANADA. FIGURES REPRESENT ANNUAL AVERAGES FOR THE PERIOD 1911 To 1913
Capital carried into Canada by immigrants and out by
Payments effected through the issuance of money
Payments on account of ocean freights and earnings of
Average annual net inflow (i. e., "invisible" import) 231
metallurgical industry, is able to supply in large measure the rails, locomotives, and other equipment required for domestic use. The following figures indicate the relative unimportance of the Canadian market to the British producer of railroad materials.1
The trade statistics of Canada show that British shipments of other kinds of railroad materials and of general merchandise are equally insignificant compared with the amount obtained elsewhere. It is apparent upon examination of the merchandise import figures of
1 Hobson, Export of Capital, p. 14.
Canada that England does not export goods to the Dominion equal in value to the capital supplied. The following table shows the total imports into Canada from the United Kingdom and the United States during a series of years, excluding coin and bullion.1
To facilitate a comparison of Canada's separate trade balances with the United Kingdom and the United States, statistics are presented in the following statement showing exports from the Dominion to the two countries, during the years 1910 to 1912, excluding coin and bullion: 2
It will be noted from the above tables that Canada, during the period under consideration, exported goods to Great Britain in excess of goods imported from the same to the extent of an average of $40,000,000 per year. At the same time, the excess of Canadian imports from the United States over exports to that country showed an annual average value of about $175,000,000. These facts lend support to the common assertion that English loans to Canada help that country to finance its American trade. English capital
1 Report of Department of Trade and Commerce, 1912, pt. 1, pp. 28-31.