« ForrigeFortsett »
3. New counties :
lands to the north and north-west, the actual A. Counties on the Upper Lakes :
policy of helping to build railroads into the
interior is correct. 1861.
1871. Essex ....
25,211 32,697 The same features obtain in Quebec. The Kent, Bothwell, and Lamb
list is long, but the point is so important ton
56,099 79,531 that, at the risk of being tedious, we here Middlesex*
also subdivide the counties as follows:-1. Huron
The group of counties on the South Shore 27,499
between Quebec and Montreal and the old
settled counties around the latter city. 2. 247,249 353,072
The counties on the north shore of the B. Back Counties :
Ottawa and St. Lawrence, all of which have 1861. 1871.
3. The new English counties Simcoe.
of the townships. 4. The counties on the Victoria
23,039 30,200 Peterboro'.
south shore, east of Quebec, all of which
30,475 Russell and Carleton..... 36,444
have new lands in the back concessions. Renfrew ....
20,325 27,974 1. Old settled counties on the south shore, Nipissing and sundries... 7,010
between Quebec and Montreal, and around 149,821 201,850 Montreal :
1861. 1871. The increase in these four sub-divisions is
12,383 11,810 respectively one, thirteen, forty-three, thirty- Lotbinière...
20,018 five per cent. There seems to be a point at
Yamaska. which population in the old counties stops,
16,045 16,317 Richelieu .
19,070 20,048 and it is probably reached when there are
St. Hyacinthe... 18,877 18,310 as many people farming the land as can
18,841 19,491 profitably do so by their own labour, and Rouville.
17,634 without employing capital in under-draining,
Verchères subsoil ploughing, or artificial manures. In
15,485 12,719 St. John's.
14,853 12, 122 the present state of the continent, with new
13, 132 0,498 lands still within easy reach, it possibly Laprairie.
14,475 pays the farmer better to send his sons away Missisquoi.
18,608 16,922 to seek them than to strive to increase his Napierville.
14,513 crops by applying science and capital to the
15, 742 14,757
Chateauguay. old farm. That it does so has evidently
17,837 16,166 Huntingdon.
16,304 become the prevailing belief. Nothing
11,218 II, 179 could be more useful to the country than to Laval....
9,472 reason out this point, for if it is better to Soulanges
12,221 apply capital and labour to old farms than
11,003 Two Mountains.
18,408 15,615 to new ones, the great surplus of Ontario
19,460 19,591 had better be employed, at a low rate of in
12,897 terest, to help the proprietors to underdrain L'Assomption.
17,355 15,473 their land, in the way that government
14,758 12,742 funds are employed in Britain. If, on the
404,615 contrary, it is better to open out the new
*Levis, town, is deducted from the county and Ho* Middlesex, though not actually on the lakes, chelaga is omitted because its increase from 16,474 belongs naturally to this group.
to 25,640 is due to the overflow from Montreal.
2. North Shore counties, having “ back
Gaspé ranges” of new lands:
13,092 15,923 1861. 1871. Pontiac 14, 125 15,791
166,001 194, 556 Ottawa.
27,757 38,597 Joliette. 21,198
The old counties thus appear to have suf
23,075 Berthier. 19,608 19,804
fered a decrease of nearly seven per cent.; Maskinongé.
14,790 15,079 the other groups have increased respectively St. Maurice.
II, 100 II, 124 eight, sixteen and seventeen per cent.
This result is far more surprising than the Portneuf
21,291 22,569 Quebec* 27,893 19,607
stationary condition of the old settled districts Montmorenci 11,136 12,085
of Ontario. Among these French counties Charlevoix, 15,223
are some which were cultivated generations Chicoutimi ,
10,478 17,493 before Ontario was, and have been steadily Saguenay and Labradort.
increasing census after census, without the 220,708
238,374 aid of immigration and simply by natural in3. Counties in the Townships, compara- crease, at the rate of about two per cent. per tively new and chiefly peopled by English annum, besides sending off swarms of young
men to take up farms elsewhere.
Why speaking folk :
should they now first exhibit a decline? Brome ...
12,732 13,757 Why is the decline so uniform? We have Stanstead
12,258 13, 138 heard that during the war, the French CaRichmond.
8,884 11,214 nadians sent a numerous contingent to the Wolfe
armies of the North, but even if they furShefford.
17,779 19,077 Drummond. 12,356
nished 40,000 men, as has been asserted Compton
10,210 13,665 number which must be grossly exaggeratedArthabaska.
17,611 40,000 could be all killed off and the loss Megantic.
be hardly felt from a population of such fe112,129 130,445
cundity as that of Quebec, where every vil4 Counties on the South Shore of the lage, almost every house, looks like a rabbit St. Lawrence, \ East of Quebec, peopled
A similar remark might chiefly by French speaking inhabitants, all be made about the French Canadian fachaving "back ranges "
tory hands employed in the New England 1861.
Have the farming lands been too Beauce
much subdivided ? — and is a clearing out Dorchester
process commencing naturally, like that Bellechasse.
16,062 17,637 which was carried out forcibly in the ScotMontmagny
tish Highlands, where in order to get the L'Islet...
12,300 13,517 Kamouraska, 21,058
best returns, the landlords made the cot
21,254 Temiscouata 18,561 22,491
ters leave their small farms and seek new Rimouski. 20,854 27,418 ones in another country? If it has—and if
the limit of population has been reached, * The writer cannot understand this; there is possibly a new subdivision, of which he is not aware.
that can by the system of farming in vogue + Suffer from the de jure comparison.
in Quebec and Ontario be well supported, Arthabaska, though a French county, seems to
it is quite clear whither the surplus populabelong to this group. So also does Drummond
tion of both Provinces must flow. It will which is also in great part French.
go northward only by degrees, though
when it does pass the Laurentian ridges, decessors on this continent, doomed to ultiand get established on the clay soils north mate extinction ? of them, it may fill up another tier of If the per centage omitted be greater than counties yet. It will not go southward. It that estimated at the commencement of this will keep, if not on the same parallel of lat- article this census is an imposture; if less itude, as near to it as possible ; emigration it is a revelation. If it be true that the movements always do. It will keep on the population has only increased twelve per zone of similar vegetation. It may, for aught cent. during the past decade, or only we know, have already largely swelled the one per cent. a year, many an aspiration population of Minnesota, Wisconsin and part for political independence must be checkof Michigan. Some of it may have been ed, many a hopeful anticipation as to our seduced to Illinois and Iowa, but the Cana- national
progress moderated. For, at this dian seldom stays there long. It will, if rate, instead of becoming in a few years facilities are provided, rather remain under a respectable rival to the United States, aidthe old institutions, and we shall find that ing by our friendly rivalry the cause of true when a railway is constructed it will seek freedom on this continent, we must remain a the North Western Territories—and pro- mere pigmy beside a giant, and it will be bably get as far westward as it can on the fifty instead of a dozen years before we can Assiniboine and the south Saskatchewan safely go out of leading strings. If it be to escape the extreme cold of the Red true that we have but three and a half mil
Another consideration, if lions now, instead of over four, as we expossible, more vital than the above, also pected, and have become a comparatively forces itself upon the mind. Although much stationary instead of a rapidly progressive disputed, the weight of testimony leads to country, the principal hope for the Dominion the belief that in the United States the must be in the wild lands and new territories purely American families tend steadily to- of the North West ; and, until they become wards extinction. Numerous are the child able to contribute to the cost of government, less homes across the border, and numerous many a financial budget must be carefully the families in which but one or two children pruned, and we must anxiously consider are born or survive. It has been the hope whether we have not been incurring debts of the writer that this infertility or this curi- and rushing into engagements at too rapid ous cropping up of the Malthusian laws un- a rate for safety. So important is this, that der circumstances in which it was not fore- it would appear desirable, if the 51st secseen they would apply, which was first ob- tion* of the Union Act will admit of it, to served in the Southern States, and is not so clearly traced into the Central and Northern,
* The Union Act, sec. 51, reads as follows :would not occur on this side of the St. Law
“On the completion of the census in the year 1871, rence. The example of the French in Que- sentation of the four Provinces shall be re-adjusted
and of each subsequent decennial census, the reprebec, multiplying throughout a couple of by such authority, in such manner, and from such centuries, seemed to encourage such a hope. time, as the Parliament of Canada from time to time But must it be given up for the Anglo-Cana- prescribes, subject and according to the following dian? Must it be given up even as regards the population of the whole Dominion ? “(1.) Quebec shall have the fixed number of 65 Is our progress to be fundamentally depend
members. ent upon immigration ? Without a steady Provinces such a number of members as will bear
"2. There shall be assigned to each of the other influx from Europe or Asia, are we like
the same proportion to the number of its population the old temple and mound builders, our pre- | (ascertained at such census) as the number 65 bear
declare the census incomplete until a general of course, upon subordinates, and what subcheck has been applied, and to take this ordinate will confess to being guilty of sins of check census of the numbers only by a omission or commission ? An enumerator schedule combining the de facto and the de may, when too late, remember having left jure plans, under the charge of special com- out this family, that manufacturing establishmissioners for each Province. If Mr. Wood, ment, but he will not tell of it. On the the late Treasurer of Ontario, Dr. Taché, other hand, almost every one of us knows the present Deputy Head of the Census of some persons omitted from the census; Bureau, Mr. Costley for Nova Scotia, and some boarding-house, hotel, public office, or some good man for New Brunswick could factory passed by, and thus a sort of pubbe appointed to give joint supervision to lic consciousness that the total is unfairly low this check, the work would be done expedi- has grown up among the people. We have tiously and cheaply, and the country would heard but little of it yet, but we predict that be satisfied; whereas, without it there will when the subject comes to be discussed in be political agitations, commercial and finan- the Legislature, there will be found a most cial uncertainty, and a tendency to relapse singular unanimity in mistrusting the statefrom the healthy national bearing we have ments made, and a deep-seated feeling been hopefully assuming into the old, dead, which will lead to acrimonious debates. inglorious, Colonial listlessness.
A radical fault underlies the whole system Unless such a course be taken Canada of census taking in America : those in charge will not believe that the census figures accu
of it attempt too much. We indulge in the rately state the population. The officials expensive luxury of enumeration but once set their belief against the general opinion in every ten years, and from the very nature of the country, and no doubt honestly; but of things the people who conduct the operawhat can the officials know? They depend, tions are new to it, each recurring decade.
For, by nothing short of a miracle, can the to the number of the population of Quebec, so ascer- same official be in charge of two successive tained.
census; most of the subordinate officers, "3. In the computation of the number of members clerks, commissioners, enumerators, must for a Province, a fractional part not exceeding one have changed positions, if not died, in such half of the whole number requisite for entitling the Province to a member shall be disregarded ;
an interval; and duties, which of all others fractional part exceeding one half of that number require most training and most special study, shall be equivalent to the whole number.
are thus of necessity placed in the hands of "4. Onany such re-adjustment the number of mem- unskilled, untried and hastily appointed perbers for a Province shall not be reduced unless the At the other end, the like difficulties proportion which the number of the population of
occur. It does not fall to many of us to fill the Province bore to the number of the aggregate up census papers at all similarly
. The boy population of Canada at the then last preceding readjustment of the number of members for the Pro
of to-day may, in this social atmosphere, be vince, is ascertained at the then latest census to be the father of a family in 1881; the clerk diminished by one-twentieth part or upwards. will certainly be a merchant; the artizan,
"5. Such re-adjustment shall not take effect until perhaps, an independent manufacturer. If the termination of the then existing Parliament.” any of us then remember, ten years hence, Thus, each lot of 18, 315 souls entitles Ontario, New how we have supplied the information Brunswick, and Nova Scotia to a member. Ontario lately asked of us, that recollection will will have 88 instead of 82, and 9,122 to spare. probably be useless; we shall again make Thirty-five more would have given her an extra representative. New Brunswick will have 16 instead mistakes and commit errors of omission. of 15 ; Nova Scotia 21 instead of 19.
Nor is the decennial system at all calcu
lated to remove the prejudices which men really were least frequent, and fewest when of all stations feel against revealing their they really were most numerous. Again, private affairs. An annual assault upon though nothing is steadier than the annual them might be successful in the end, but rate of mortality, the census of 1850 only a slight stir ing of the mud every ten years made 16 per cent of the deaths of a year only, invariably shows them as inveterate as occur under one year of age; while that of
The usual rule in statistical enquiries 1860 increased the proportion to 20 per is to obtain details, because details can be cent. So well indeed is the inaccuracy of grouped into general heads, whereas general the subsidiary results of the census known heads cannot be expanded, but in the tak- to the initiated, that no actuary thinks of ing of the census this excellent maxim is consulting American census tables to obtain stretched too far; special circumstances vital statistics, no statesman bases revenue mark at a given place the limits of the prac- calculations on the information respecting ticable. By attempting too much detail the manufactures the census pretends to give. whole work is rendered costly where it might To conclude, when we abandon the attempt be cheap, difficult where it might be easy, to do by means of a census what should be cumbrous where it should be simple, tardy done by means of an effective system of where it should be rapid, and above all registration, and give over asking about unreliable where it ought to be accurate. births, deaths, ages and perhaps religions, we
We need not go far to establish the truth shall be more likely to have a reliable stateof the above. Mr. Hutton, in his report on ment of the numbers and occupations of the Canadian census of 1851, speaks feelingly our people, and, if wanted, of their national of the “gross negligence” of the enumerators. descent. Not until we delegate to comThe census of 1861 has long been known missioners, or specially qualified officials, to be a “monument of incapacity.” Even a periodical investigations into the state of statistical chain cannot be much stronger our mining, manufacturing or agricultural than its weakest links. And a singular ex- industries, shall we have reliable accounts of ample of the futility of endeavouring to get these. The union of the whole into one deby a census, anywhere, accurate particu- cennial enquiry, miscalled a census, periodlars of anything beyond the number of ically fires the ambition of a Minister, and the population, is given in the foolish then destroys his reputation and gives to attempt made in the United States to ascer- our Bureau a labour which we regret to betain the months in which most deaths oc- lieve as futile as we know it to be arduous. curred. While the exact and accurate State
* The numbers stated in the census, 1860, were registrations show September to be the most 40,741 for May, and only 27,546 for the preceding deadly, the United States enumerators made June ! The percentage in each quarter, compared it May; and the reason is that the census with the State registry, is as follows
State was taken on the first of June, that people
Census. Registry best remembered the deaths of the preced- June, July, August.... 23.65 ing month, but forgot them more and more September, October, Novas the months receded. Grouping the year
December, January, Febinto quarters, the census made the deaths
24.29 23.29 most numerous in the quarter when they March. April, May...... 29.70 23.24