the Industrial Department of the Seattle Chamber of Commerce, states that one large aircraft company "has a backlog of $150,000,000 in orders for Stratocruisers and other heavy aircraft exclusive of army orders. The employment level is approximately 11,000, which may be increased slightly as actual production of planes gets well under way."

In shipbuilding, deflation appears to have run its course. Some yards are closed down permanently. Others are operating on repair work or building fishing and other commercial craft. Norman J. Box, manager of the Bremerton Chamber of Commerce, writes of the Puget Sound Navy Yard:

We do not expect, of course, anywhere near our wartime peak of employment, but undoubtedly a great many more persons will be employed in this yard than before the war. The wartime peak of employment was 32,500 and we expect this to level off at around 10,000 on a more or less permanent basis. 10

An over-all estimate is that shipbuilding will continue at 23 percent above prewar.

Even shipyards built exclusively for the war effort have not been wholly valueless. Prof. Wesley C. Ballaine of the University of

Oregon points out that—

The salvage value of the shipyards when used for industrial purposes is surprisingly high. Conversion of the Swan Island yard (near Portland) has progressed substantially. At present a mobile concrete mixer is being manufactured there for a Portland distributor, and machine-shop work is performed for logging and sawmill machinery manufacturers. One of the proposed products to be made there is an aluminum clothes drier for a Portland manufacturer. * ** interests, which have leased a portion of the area, plan to encourage aluminum fabrication for industrial concerns in the vicinity in order to provide additional markets for the aluminum rolled at * * Spokane * * * 11

Uncertainties as to the future of the aluminum industry have yielded to optimistic hopes. The Vancouver, Wash., plant is operating at capacity and the company is working on plans for a local source of alumina, possibly using Oregon ores. The company operating the Longview, Wash., plant has leased the Troutdale, Oreg., plant and has it in operation. Another company has leased the Spokane, Wash., reduction plant and the aluminum rolling mill and purchased the Tacoma, Wash., reduction plant. Plans are under consideration for a local alumina plant by this company also.

Markets for aluminum will determine the future of these operations. In addition to the aircraft industry, which continues to be a heavy

Pacific Northwest Industry, December 1946, p. 46.

10 Idem, p. 43.

11 Oregon, by Wesley C. Ballaine, in Pacific Northwest Industry, pp. 54-55.

consumer of aluminum, many new users of aluminum are appearing in Portland, Spokane, and Seattle.

Several small fabricating plants which make use of the aluminum of the rolling mill have sprung up in Spokane County. Although not as large as the rolling mill and reduction plant, they are playing an increasingly important role in the manufacturing of eastern Washington. The largest employs approximately 125 people and seems to be maintaining this level. The future of these plants is still uncertain, and further expansion is limited at this time by a shortage of building and production materials and by a shortage of labor. Most of these fabricating plants have sprung up since the war, and in 1947 their permanency should be determined.12

Professor Ballaine writes: "There has been a marked growth during 1946 of small firms in the Portland area using aluminum for the manufacture of such items as griddles, pots and pans, wheels, pulleys, castings, etc. It seems reasonable to anticipate further expansion of this kind." 13

Pacific Northwest aluminum plants have too great capacity, however, to count on West Coast markets, which at best are not likely to absorb more than 20 to 25 percent for some years to come. Reliance must be placed on export outlets and sales to the industrial consuming centers of the Great Lakes area. Potentially low costs make possible effective competition in these markets, especially when a Pacific Northwest alumina plant is in operation.

In contrast to the widespread anticipation of industrial expansion and diversification on the coast and at Spokane is the less optimistic outlook for Montana and to a lesser extent for. Idaho. As Prof. Robert C. Line of Montana State University puts it: "Montana needs new industries. These have to be built from the ground up. She does not have idle buildings which were war plants 2 years ago. She does not have surplus labor waiting for employment."

14

Certain limiting factors on industrial expansion of the entire region should be kept in mind. The Pacific Northwest shares with the Nation the general shortage of skilled labor and lack of housing facilities as well as difficulties in getting materials and labor for industrialconstruction. It seems strange to suggest the possibility of a shortage of electric power, in view of the great Bonneville and Coulee dams which, when built a few years ago, offered capacity far beyond the foreseeable needs of the region. If the aluminum industry continues to operate at anywhere near capacity, however, very little surplus power will be available for new industrial expansion.

12 Margaret L. Schleef and John A. Guthrie, op. cit., p. 38.

13 Op. cit., p. 56.

14 Western Montana, by Robert C. Line, in Pacific Northwest Industry, December 1946, p. 53.

The agricultural picture is admirably summed up by Prof. John A. Guthrie of Washington State College. "The outlook for agriculture in 1947 is clouded by the uncertainty of general business conditions and the threat of further labor troubles." Even if employment, production, and income are at a high level, he goes on to say—

This may not result in a proportionate demand for farm products, inasmuch as there is still a tremendous accumulated demand for many manufactured goods which were not available during the war. Consumer spending may be directed heavily towards scarce durable consumer goods.

Prices of many farm products are expected to continue relatively high in 1947, although they may decline in the latter part of the year.15

Other authorities in the region are less optimistic about farm prices. However, large yields are anticipated which should mean substantial farm incomes even though prices are lower.

The outlook for the basic forest products industries is encouraging. Demand for housing is expected to insure a strong market for lumber for several years to come. New forest "access roads" have been opened up which permit logging operations not hitherto possible. There is also the technological development called "relogging" which enables cut-over areas to yield additional revenue by setting up small portable sawmills to use "small trees, broken logs, tops, etc., that were left by the first operation because the cost of transporting them to a mill was greater than their value." 16 Now only the lumber has to be taken out. Conservation and selective logging continue a part of the long-range program of the industry with the ultimate objective of a sustained yield from forest resources.

Fisheries is another Pacific Northwest industry with a promising future. Before the war the "take" of fish from the Pacific Northwest waters, including Alaska, was equal to that of the New England States, a 20-million-dollar industry. New developments for 1947 include factory ships, deep-sea trawlers equipped to catch the king crab, sole, and other bottom fish as far north as the Bering Sea, and also to clean, sharp freeze, and package the product, and return to port with as much as 200 tons of fish ready for market.

Foreign trade prospects of the Pacific Northwest should begin to materialize in 1947. New companies have been organized and plans laid to enter into aggressive promotion of foreign trade as international conditions permit. Plans are also afoot for a foreign trade zone in the Puget Sound area. An exhaustive study of the possibilities of such a zone has recently been completed."

18 Op. cit., p. 38.

16 Ballaine, op. cit., p. 55.

17 A Foreign-Trade Zone for Puget Sound: Its Economic Desirability and Feasibility, by Prof. Charles J. Miller, University of Washington, published by the Washington State Department of Conservation and Development, Olympia, 1947.

Finally, the tourist industry of the Pacific Northwest offers immediate prospects for 1947 and 1948 that may be measured in terms of millions of dollars annually. The findings of a recent survey indicate a 200-million-dollar annual potential tourist trade for the State of Washington alone, once the necessary accommodations for tourists. are provided.18

Summing up, the economic outlook for the Pacific Northwest for 1947 is as good as or somewhat better than for 1946, assuming no serious national recession. Population growth is expected to continue, with employment opportunities keeping pace. Unemployment, which has been low during 1946 despite serious problems of reconversion, including an influx of more than the region's prewar share of veterans, is not expected to rise greatly. In fact, labor shortages, which have held back certain industries, notably construction and building, are likely to continue. Incomes will probably remain high on a per capita basis, assuring a better than average as well as a growing market within the region.

18 The Tourist Industry of Washington, by Mr. Robert G. Seymour, Bureau of Business Research of the University of Washington, made for the State of Washington Department of Conservation and Development, 1946.

Collective Bargaining On The Pacific Coast1

By CLARK KERR, University of California

TRADE-UNION activity is now almost a century old on the Pacific Coast, dating from the "Gold Rush" days in California. A diverse and increasingly powerful trade-union movement has developed. Organization is more complete than in most other parts of the Nation.2 The movement has a tradition of aggressive action as attested by the general strikes of Seattle (1919), San Francisco (1934), and Oakland (1946); the Wheatland hop riots (1913); the Everett (1916) and Centralia (1919) "massacres" in the days of the Industrial Workers of the World (IWW); the union domination of politics on two occasions in the history of San Francisco and one in Seattle; and the episodes of the bombing of the Los Angeles Times (1910) and the Tom Mooney case in San Francisco (1916)—among other illustrations. Employers also have organized in strong and aggressive associations. In recent times the "master agreement" negotiated between a union and an employers' association has become the increasingly accepted instrument of collective bargaining. Multiemployer bargaining is sufficiently widespread to be the standard pattern.

Union Agreement Coverage

Collective bargaining is more widespread on the Pacific Coast than in the United States generally. In 1945 throughout the Nation, about 48 percent of the workers in occupations over which unions. claim active jurisdiction were covered by written collective bargaining agreements. On the Pacific Coast, an estimated 57 to 63 percent of the workers "eligible" are covered by agreements.*

3

Approximately 31⁄2 million workers on the Pacific Coast are now "eligible" for coverage by union agreements. About 60 percent actually work under such arrangements.

This comparative strength of the trade-unions on the West Coast is even greater when examined in conjunction with the industrial structure of the region. Nation-wide, the greatest degree of organization generally exists in manufacturing employment. Such employment on

1 The author wishes to acknowledge the assistance of the members of the staff of the Institute of Industrial Relations, University of California (Berkeley), and particularly of Carl Campbell.

2 Already by the turn of the century San Francisco was considered "the most completely closed-shop community in the United States."-Ira B. Cross: History of the Labor Movement in California (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1935), p. 261.

* U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Extent of Collective Bargaining and Union Recognition, 1945 (Bulletin No. 865, reprinted from Monthly Labor Review, April 1946, with additional data).

Estimated from data obtained from government, union, and industry sources.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics definition of "eligibility" (Bulletin No. 865, op. cit.) and current estimates of total employment have been used.