-all according to the nature and condition of the leading industry and the prospects of its coming back.

Sometimes apparently intangible matters, such as the disarmament proceedings, have a profoundly encouraging effect, or the belief that many of the constructive programs now in contemplation or actual operation will soon show tangible results. The universal feeling is that there can be no better times that are enduring or worth while until the prices of farm products advance materially or the prices of other commodities decline proportionately. The attitude to the future is almost invariably summed up in a single word, "Gloomy," "Uncertain," "Pessimistic,' "Optimistic." Sometimes, though not often, a whole State thinks one way. More often there is the most profound difference in the mental attitude of neighboring localities.

Those questionnaire theorists who dearly love averages would be hopelessly bewildered in getting any percentage of expression. One phrase recurs that best tells the story, and the most vivid expression of it comes from the far Southwest where every industry is deadly dull and where everything has gone wrong, including the weather. For it sounds the intimate and characteristic note of those who people that section. "Hopeful," the spirit of unflagging courage and grim resolution; the fighting spirit that holds like a stone wall for four downs on the one-yard line. The Nation's Business.

Ipswich

I have just finished reading the December number of the BULLETIN and beg to offer my hearty praise for its very excellent and many interesting qualities.

Your editorials are always fine (and Fladeresque). Your selections from other writers are timely and well chosen. Your correspondents are interesting and instructive, showing conditions and different viewpoints from many cities.

The cartoon, "Eliza Crossing the Ice," appeals to me, as I have from my window a beautiful view of a river of ice (on my river the only life is a few fellows spearing eels). I hope Eliza will get over to the "Promised Land," although it doesn't look very attractive with only three trees and a label promising "PEACE." It would be a sad thing if, in jumping the open spaces, her little timid child, "EMPLOYERS," should slip in and drown. But, if she gets over with the other kid, “WORKERS," they will be able to start something in that land of peace.

Among the villains and dogs pursuing Eliza I fail to find "FORTY-FOUR HOURS" and "I. P. E. U." Perhaps they have gone ahead and are awaiting Eliza in the promised land. I hope so, but must say, I doubt it.

After reading the complimentary things you and President Schuetz say about "OPEN SHOP" I am inclined to think he is not such a villain as his associates in the cartoon. If Eliza and both her kids fall into the "River of Doubt," I am quite sure that "OPEN SHOP" will pull them all out and save their lives, and no longer be rated among "THE VILLAINS WHO STILL PURSUE HER." Wishing you a happy and interesting New Year in your very good work.

WARD M. Tenney.

The Business Cycle

By way of explanation of the downward plunge in industry and the general effect on business, Roger W. Babson, the well-known statistician, cited twelve periods in each business cycle. By the study of these he believes it is possible to forecast with certainty what any industry or section will next enjoy or suffer in a business way. Mr. Babson's summary of the situation, past, present, and future, accompanied by his opinion that the sixth period is at hand, was presented as follows at a mass meeeting talk before the Bankers and Brokers of New York at Cooper Union on November 10th:

The Business Cycle

1. Every cycle begins at the peak of prosperity, accompanied by large profits and high wages.

2. This is followed by a period of inefficiency, accompanied by declining bond prices.

3. Next we have the period of dishonesty and profiteering, accompanied by declining stock prices.

4. Then comes the periodical crime wave with declining commodity prices.

5. Lack of confidence is then everywhere apparent, which results in general unemployment.

6. People must then cut down living expenses, families double up, all of which results in declining real estate prices. This is the end of the general decline and improvement usually begins at this point of the cycle.

Improvement Begins

7. Thrift becomes more evident and this results in declining interest rates, allowing banks to loan money to start new building and again. set the wheels of industry moving.

8. The unemployment period always results in greater efficiency, which is evident at this point in the cycle. Increasing bond prices are noticeable at this time.

9. People become more honest, fairer prices are asked by both merchants and labor. We get a dollar in value whether buying merchandise or labor, which we did not get during the period of prosperity.

10. Renewed religious interest is now evident, resulting in restored confidence, greater buying with the strengthening of commodity prices. 11. This is followed by great activity in all lines, with labor fully employed.

12. The cycle has been completed; extravagance and waste are again in evidence with high money rates.

Mr. Babson also showed by charts that all industries are not hit at the same time but rather in the following order :

1. Rugs, jewelry, and other things purchased by the wealthy. 2. The silk industry and expensive household furnishings. In a time of business depression, the wealthy are the first to stop buying and the masses are the last to stop buying.

3. Leather. This industry has probably suffered the most of any. Many classes of leather are selling for less than they sold for before the war. Some grades are selling lower than they have sold for thirty years.

4. Boots and shoes. This industry centred in New England, was hit very hard last year, especially the manufacturers of men's shoes. The buyers' strike really started with the boot and shoe industry.

5. Textiles. Directly after people stopped buying shoes, they began to economize on all kinds of woolen and cotton goods used in their homes and business generally.

6. Men's clothing. The first merchant to feel the effects of the present depression was the retail clothing dealer. The men's clothing industry was hit a very hard blow early in the depression and has not yet recovered. If, however, we have a cold winter ahead of us, there will very likely be a clothing shortage.

7. Building. The building of factories and office buildings came to an abrupt stop last fall. For some time there has been a shortage in homes, but not till a few months ago was building in all lines greatly contracted.

Farm Product Prices

8. Farm products. A year ago wheat was selling at $2.50 a bushel, corn at $1.00 a bushel, and other products of the farm at correspondingly high prices. All at once the crash came and today the farmer is the bluest man in the country. Farm products were the eighth great industry to be hit and will be the eighth to recover.

9. Iron and steel. The next industry to be hit was iron and steel. The prices of steel products were one of the last to decline. Steel prices have not yet hit bottom. There is no immediate sign of rcovery in the steel industry.

10. Machinery. Machine tools and allied interests are at a very low ebb, with no prospects of an immediate recovery.

11. Shipping. Even worse than the machinery products is the shipping industry. There are no hopes at present for a revival in shipping for some time to come. Shipping rates must be lower and the shipbuilding industry is absolutely dead.

12. The twelfth leading industry has not been hit. This includes the semi-luxuries which are purchased by the masses, best illustrated by tobacco in the case of men, and wearing apparel in the case of women.

As to the likelihood of better business in 1922, Mr. Babson said: "We hope that there will be a turn in the tide next year, but there is no sign of it at present. Of course it is wrong to treat all industries and all sections of the country as a unit. The industries and the sections of the country which were hit first will be the first to recover, but those industries and sections which were last to be hit will be last to recover. Taking all industries and all sections and averaging them up, we hope the corner in the Babson chart cycle will turn sometime next year. On the other hand, the next area above the normal line will not carry prices as high as they were in the last period above the normal line, and for years to come we may see prices find new low points in each depression, while each high point of the periods of prosperity will be lower than the one preceding. This is very important for younger clients to keep in mind.

"Following the Napoleonic Wars and the Civil War, there was an intermittent decline in interest rates, commodity prices, and wages for about thirty years, after which has come an upward movement for twenty years. A great proportion of America's business men have thus far experienced only the upward movement. Hence the man who has been in business less than twenty years knows absolutely nothing of the movement that this country may experience during the next ten to thirty years. It may be a new world to him and a new language to him. He may be obliged to do business under conditions that he never knew were possible. Therefore it is exceedingly necessary for him to begin at once to study fundamental conditions and not be caught unawares. -Copyrighted.

"He asked me why we charge so much for our work and he wanted to know when our prices are coming down.”

Do you know the answer to that one? You will find it in the booklet, "A Ghost is Laid," prepared by the Publicity Committee. It costs 15 cents. Get ten copies and use them.

St. Louis

Members of the St. Louis Photo-Engravers' Club were very agreeably surprised when Mr. Millard Goldsmith, President of the Sanders-Melsheimer Co., appeared at our last regular meeting, looking the picture of health. About sixteen months ago Mr. Goldsmith was advised by his physician to seek a milder climate. After spending several months at Colorado Springs, he entered a sanatarium at Monrovia, Calif., where he completely recovered his health. He has resumed his active duties in connection with the Sanders-Melsheimer Co.

Mr. August Frank, of the Reliance Engraving Company, has been confined to his bed at the Jewish Hospital for the past six weeks. He is receiving the best of medical attention, and, according to the latest report, he is convalescing. We hope he will soon be able to be with us again.

Mr. Joe Schneider, of the Acme Engraving Company, left St. Louis on December 26th, to spend a few months in the South, at the advice of his physician. We hope it will not be long before we can welcome him back into the fold.

For the past sixty days our Labor Committee has been negotiating with the Union Committee in an effort to reach a satisfactory agreement as to wages and working conditions. But, somehow or other, our workmen, with whom we have been dealing for the last twenty-two years, either could not or would not realize the fairness of our proposition. The men seem to have an idea that they can continue indefinitely on war-time wages, regardless of whether their employers make a profit or not.

The present high wages were granted during a period of the greatest activity that the engraving industry has ever known. The volume of business has decreased to a point where it is absolutely necessary to readjust our cost of production to conform with present business conditions. All other lines of business are undergoing similar adjustments, and sooner or later the workmen in the photo-engraving industry will realize that they alone cannot expect to keep their wages at the highest peak, while other trades have already accepted reasonable reductions.

We have submitted to the Union, as a final proposition, an agreement providing for a forty-four-hour week, a general reduction in wages of five dollars per week, same minimum scale as last agreement, or return to a forty-eight-hour week at present wages. Either of these propositions is fair and would enable the employers to adjust their business to meet present conditions.

After several meetings with the Union Committee, it became apparent that they did not intend to treat our proposals seriously, their intention being to drag out negotiations and continue to enjoy present conditions indefinitely. The employers, feeling that they had made every concession which they could possibly afford to make, decided not to continue to operate after December 31st under the terms of the old agreement. Accordingly they posted notices in their shops, notifying their men that the present agreement had expired and, pending the signing of a