CHAPTER XIX

THE GROUND-HOG'S SHADOW AND OTHER WEATHER MYTHS

There was a time when nearly every one believed firmly in the myths, legends, or proverbs for predicting weather changes that had been handed down to them from past generations. Nor did this belief die out with our ancestors. In many cases it still exists. Some of these weather myths, being based on actual observations of well-known natural phenomena, are worthy of belief. Others being mere superstitions, are totally unreliable. In many cases these beliefs are expressed in verse, or, more correctly, in rhymes or jingles, for the composition in most cases is far from poetic.

In his book on "Weather Lore," Mr. Inwards has collected from a number of similar books many proverbs, sayings, and rules concerning the weather. I am sure it will interest you to hear some of them. I will therefore call your attention to a few only.

The "Saints' Days" for many generations have been supposed to rule the weather for longer or shorter periods. Chief among these is "Candlemas Day," or the Feast of the Purification of the Virgin, which was celebrated on February 2d. The name Candlemas Day" was given to this feast because it was celebrated by a procession with lighted candles. There appears to have been a widespread belief that a clear, sunshiny "Candlemas Day" would be followed by a long period of cold weather.

The following are some of the many proverbs or rhymes concerning "Candlemas Day." The Scotch proverb says:

"If Candlemas Day be fair and clear,

There will be twa winters in the year."

Or, according to another proverb:

"If Candlemas Day is fair and bright,
Winter will have another flight.

But if Candlemas Day brings clouds and rain,
Winter is gone and won't come again."

But you may say that such proverbs were surely only believed in the past; highly civilized people like those now living in the United States would never believe such nonsense. But here you are wrong.

This belief in Candlemas Day weather still exists in many parts of the United States, but here the name of the Saint's Day has been dropped; the name Ground-hog Day is used in its stead. For the American form of the myth is that if the ground-hog comes out of its hole on the 2d of February and finds the weather cold and blustery, it stays out because it knows the winter is over. If it finds the sun shining so that it is able to see its shadow, it knows there is more winter to come, and therefore returns, and remains in its hole for six additional weeks.

A similar belief exists concerning the bear, the badger, or the woodchuck. Indeed, Ground-hog Day is in some sections also called Woodchuck Day.

According to the ground-hog myth the sun must be shining at noon for the sign to hold good; that is, the ground-hog must be able to see his shadow at this time, otherwise there is nothing indicated.

In Germany the ground-hog appears to be more reasonable, for there it is asserted that if he comes out of his hole and finds snow on the ground he walks abroad, since he knows that the winter is about over. But if he sees the sun shining, he goes back to his hole; but here only for four weeks instead of six.

A similar supposition exists in France where the following rhyme is common:

"At the day of Candlemas,

Cold in air and snow on grass;

If the sun then entice the bear from his den,
He turns round thrice and gets back again."

In Spain they say:

"When it rains at Candlemas,

The cold is over."

I suppose you have often noticed the great interest every one seems to take in the weather. When people meet, the character of the weather is very apt to be the first topic of conversation. This, perhaps, is natural, since so much of one's comfort depends on the weather, especially on holidays, or on days when picnics or excursions are planned that take us out in the open air.

Nearly all of us are apt to dwell unnecessarily on the unpleasantness of some particular kind of weather that does not suit us. This, I am sorry to say, is more frequently seen in older than in younger people.

You will very frequently hear people declare, when the weather happens to be unusually wet, dry, hot or cold, that they never remember experiencing such weather; that, when they were young, there never were such weather changes. Now, I have only to say to such people, that, although the weather certainly changes from day to day, as regards its heat or cold, its moisture or dryness, yet almost every year is on the average almost like other years. For example, in the United States careful observations concerning the condition of the weather or the climate as far back as 1738, show that the average climate has undergone no decided change since that time. You might remember this fact the next time you hear such assertions made.

The fact that the average climate of a country is so much the same, year after year, has given rise to a general belief (more or less correct) that unusually warm weather is apt to be averaged or made up for by unusually cold weather, and vice versa. If, towards the end of March, especially during the last three days of the month, the weather suddenly becomes unusually warm, March is said to have borrowed

three days from April. These, it is claimed, are paid back by April taking on three days more of typical March weather.

Sir Walter Scott says that the last three days of March (according to the old calendar) were known as the borrowing days. If these days be unusually stormy, March is said to have borrowed three days from April.

A similar idea is conveyed in the following rhyme from Scotland:

"March borrowit from April,

Three days and they were ill;

The first was frost, the second was snaw,

The third was cauld [cold], as ever't could blaw."

It is the unusually warm days that March borrows from April that cause the early blossoms on the fruit trees and other vegetation. When, therefore, the colder weather comes in April (the borrowed days which March pays back), great loss to the crops often occurs from frost. It is the warm in days March, or at the beginning of April, that cause the blackthorn to bloom, and are followed by a cold period called the blackthorn winter. Hence the meaning of the saying: "Beware of the blackthorn winter."

There are many common sayings based on the well-known fact that rain is of greater value at certain times of the year than at others. For example, April is in most parts of the temperate zones of the earth the best time for the early rain; so we have in our country: "April showers bring May flowers." A saying in Portugal is as follows: "April cold and wet fills barn and barrel."

Sometimes predictions of the coming weather are based not on the weather during particular days, but during certain months of the year. Take, for example, the month of November. A belief exists that ice early in November indicates an open year. For example, we have the following rhyme:

"Ice in November,

Brings mud in December."

As regards the month of September, we have the following sayings:

"When a cold spell occurs in September, and passes without a frost, a frost will not occur until the same time in October." And again:

"If the storms of September clear off warm, all the storms of the following winter will be warm."

The feast of Martimas, which occurs on November 11th, was also believed to be a day like Candlemas Day. There is an old belief in England that the weather on this feast day determines the general direction of the wind for the coming winter.

"Where the wind is on Martimas, there it will be for the coming winter."

In the midland countries of Europe it is customary for the farmers to watch the weather on Martimas Eve carefully, since the weather at this time is supposed to govern the weather for some two or three months afterwards.

Perhaps some of the most foolish of the superstitious weather proverbs are those based on particular days of the week. I need not tell you that such proverbs are without any credibility. For example:

"When the sun sets clear on Wednesday,

Expect clear weather the rest of the week."

In France they have the following:

"Fine on Friday,

Fine on Sunday;

Wet on Friday,

Wet on Sunday."

There is also a very common belief that if it storms on the first Sunday of the month, it will storm every Sunday of that month.

There is another class of weather myths or proverbs that are based on such natural phenomena as the direction of the wind, the character and appearance of the clouds, especially their coloring at sunrise or sunset, or the appearance of the