FIGURE VII

again 1,763 newspapers. During the period of 1946-1964, the number of newspapers reached a high of 1,786 in 1952 and a low of 1,751 in 1951. Therefore the 1,763 newspapers in 1964 were not entirely the same 1,763 newspapers of 18 years earlier. The fluctuation in the number of daily newspapers shows that the newspaper business is competitive and as such there is both the freedom of entry into publishing and the freedom to fail and leave the business.

The fact that there are as many newspapers today as there were in 1946 shows the continuing vitality of the newspaper business. With economies of scale in manufacturing and distribution, there is a tendency for the largest firms of an industry

to grow larger while the small firms retire, thus decreasing the total number of firms. However, the growth pattern of the newspaper business has not conformed to this general pattern. In the newspaper business it is the smaller newspaper that has enjoyed the greatest growth in recent years.

A 10-year analysis of the growth of newspapers is shown in Figure VII. This growth is calculated on the basis of the change in newsprint consumption by all daily newspapers in the United States, with figures adjusted for the temporary effect of strikes in 1963. The growth of all United States newspapers during the period

'The time period used was dictated by the availability of accurate information on newsprint consumption by newspapers in cities of various sizes.

The Future —
Circulations to Advance

In the years ahead most newspapers will enjoy a substantial increase in circulation because of the maturation and marriage of the post-World War II baby crop and other developments.

The United States Bureau of the Census makes various projections of household growth based on differing assumptions concerning family and household formations. As shown in Figure VIII, the number of U. S. households will have expanded approximately 4.6 million in the years 1960 to 1965. In the next five years, 1966 to 1970, the most conservative projection is

9

21.8

1965-1980

Source: Survey of Current Business, U. S. Department of Commerce,

Volume 43, No. 11 (November 1963), p. 15.

4.8 million. A second projection anticipates a 5.3 million increase and the most recent projection forecasts a 7.8 million increase.

In the 15-year period of 1966 to 1980, the most conservative projected increase is 16.4 million households and the optimistic projection is 22 million. Therefore, newspapers can look forward to between 16.4 and 22 million more potential customers by 1980!

The expansion in the number of newspaper consumers is not the only factor that will contribute to increased circulations in the years ahead. The circulation of metropolitan dailies should benefit from an increased reliance on public transportation. Our highways, streets and parking facilities in metropolitan areas are congested, and commuting by automobile is growing increasingly expensive. As population expands and public transportation improves, more people will rely on public conveyances. As a result, more people will buy and read newspapers between home and work.

A third positive factor in the growth of circulation is the fact that newspapers have successfully weathered a number of adjustments during the past 15 years. The movement of urban population to the suburbs, rising costs and the necessity to raise circulation rates, the introduction of a new medium of communications and a change in reading habits reduced multiple newspaper readership. Evidence indicates that most of these adjustments are at an end. Demographers indicate that the exodus to the suburbs is about over and that urban areas will grow more rapidly in the years ahead. With rapidly rising levels of income, the public is adjusting to higher prices for newspapers and other publications. In addition, television is no longer a rapidly growing adolescent which must derive part

of its growth from the established communications media. Television will continue to grow, but at a much less rapid rate.

With the adjustments of the past 15 years at an end, plus rising levels of education, shorter working hours, larger incomes and decreased poverty, the multiple readership of newspapers should increase. Therefore, newspaper circulation should advance faster than the increase in the number of households.

As a result, daily circulation should increase more in the decade ahead than in any other decade in the history of the United States newspaper business.

Newspaper Advertising to Expand

While the increased number of households is a quantitative change that will insure the growth of circulation, the qualitative changes associated with the household growth are of even greater significance to newspapers. In contrast to the past decade, most of the future expansion in the number of households will be due to a rapid rise in the number of young families.8

During the 1950's, the population aged 20 to 24 declined 4%. In the 1960's this group will increase by 54%. Most of this increase, and most of the resulting family formations, will take place in the latter half of the current decade. These new families are going to need apartments, stoves, refrigerators, washing machines, cars, blankets, furniture, clothing and a multitude of

In the 1950's a substantial proportion of household growth was due to a marked rise in the number of non-family households (which increased nearly 4 million) and an apparent rise in the number of older person households. Household increases of these types undoubtedly do not generate as large an increase in the demand for consumer products (including newspapers) as do household increases resulting from new family formations.