Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Subactivity Recent Accomplishments Florida Everglades Water Flow Model Understanding the movement of water in the Florida Everglades is an important and necessary element in the maintenance of the Everglades as a biologically viable ecosystem. The USGS is building water-flow models of the Everglades to simulate predevelopment, current, and future ecosystem conditions. These simulations aid in developing plans to manage South Florida surface-water flows for habitat restoration and maintenance in the Everglades National Park. Knowledge of the interaction between the vegetation, topography and water is critical for an appropriate understanding and representation of the Everglades hydrography and ecosystem. USGS scientists have used state-of-the-art data collection techniques to determine the submerged topography of the Everglades. A helicopter based Global Positioning System has been used to obtain a highly accurate picture of this subsurface. New image enhancement techniques have been developed to improve the interpretability of color satellite images. Using these enhanced images and the subsurface topography, scientists have developed unique analytical tools to classify vegetation types, and thereby provide the necessary inputs for modeling the water flow of the Everglades. Lessening the Impact of Earthquake Risks - California communities can develop effective mitigation strategies and protect properties by using the USGS Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) to evaluate earthquake risk and estimate the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies. By modeling protection strategies like an investment portfolio, the LUPM uses geographic information system technology to integrate Earth science and economic data to evaluate and assess the benefits of mitigating earthquake risk at different locations. This interactive decision-support tool allows policymakers in California communities to design and test the impacts of spatially specific mitigation policies on expected losses and overall community well being. Safeguarding Lake Tahoe - USGS scientists provided the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) in Nevada and California with a land-use planning tool that gives decisionmakers critical information regarding ecosystem health and impacts associated with land management activities and regulations. In partnership with TRPA, USGS scientists considered existing land use as a portfolio of current assets and estimated each land use category's impact on lake clarity, much like rating stocks for rate of return. An interactive tool was developed that allows planners to estimate how changes in the portfolio of land uses will change the cumulative Mapping, Remote Sensing, and Geographic Investigations impact. First results are promising enough that planners are now considering this approach as an alternative to the present system of allocating building permits. Mapping West Nile Virus Scientists at the USGS and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) collaborated to map and study the West Nile virus epidemic in the United States. Data from CDC National Arboviral Surveillance System was used by USGS to make weekly maps showing the current pattern of the outbreak. Scientists performed additional analyses to detect clusters of infections, rates of spread, and possible focal points of West Nile virus. Further work will establish the location and extent of those areas that contain the vectors or vertebrate hosts of pathogens that cause the disease. A key outcome involves locating all populations at risk and working to reduce the Counties reporting positive cases of West Nile Virus for October 2000. Modeling Urban Growth - Working with the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG), USGS scientists are collecting land use change information for a series of years to forecast landscape change and to model future urban growth in the Denver metropolitan area. Urban growth illustrations have been used in the Colorado Legislature's ongoing debate regarding growth management legislation. These predictive models helped the Denver Regional Council of Governments meet the requirements of the Colorado Responsible Growth initiative by providing community decisionmakers with valuable information needed to manage the location, pace, shape, and quality of Denver's dynamic urban growth and its effect on the Front Range. Monitoring, Analyzing, and Modeling Land-Cover Characteristics at Multiple Scales - The USGS maps and analyzes the geographic variability of land cover and land use at local, regional, national, and global scales using state-of-the-art remotely sensed data and classification strategies. Models are developed to explain (1) the extent of human modification of the natural environment; (2) how these modifications affect weather formation, storm behavior, wildfire hazards, and atmospheric chemistry; (3) what types of land cover are most dynamic; (4) what the relationship is between land-cover change and environmental factors such as quantity and quality of ground water, health and distribution of various biologic species, and affects of change on the availability of natural resources; and (5) what the regional rates of change in land-cover and land-use change are. Scientists use these complex data sets to describe land characteristics and better understand and model land processes, land 126 Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Subactivity atmosphere interactions, and the impacts of landscape change that result from natural and human causes. Web site: http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/programs/ccp/landcovertrends.html Modeling Wildlife Response to Human Activities - A team of USGS geographers and biologists developed a model of road-supported recreation in critical wildlife habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area. It is not possible to make direct observations of use patterns over an area as large as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, so the model is being developed, calibrated, and tested in several small areas. Results can be applied over larger areaspossibly over the whole Greater Yellowstone Area if validation supports such use. Completion of 2 years of road mapping and traffic-counting now provides the basis for development of the first version of the model. When combined with animal tracking data, the model will help USGS, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other agencies determine wildlife responses to human activities in this singular ecosystem. Atlas of Amphibian Distribution - This activity is a cooperative effort with the USGS Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative. The Initiative plans to publish an atlas of species distribution maps. Production of the atlas is enhanced by incorporating information on (1) the time frame represented by the data compiled for each species, (2) abundance criteria used, (3) sampling methods, and (4) information availability. The varied (and poorly understood) life histories, speciation, narrow physical ranges, and relatively limited sampling of amphibians to date challenge the compilation of an atlas. This product is being used to portray the current state of understanding regarding amphibian distribution and health in the United States. Global Land Cover Characterization - A number of initiatives of the International Geosphere and Biosphere Program and the U.S. Global Change Research Program have identified requirements for current global land-cover data sets. Land-cover data are important inputs into global-modeling applications and permit modeling of related parameters, such as net primary production, the hydrologic cycle, gas storage and emissions, surface energy exchanges, and changes in land cover and vegetation conditions. In response to these needs, the USGS has produced a global land-cover characteristics database. Following peer review and a formal accuracy assessment, the USGS released an updated, 1-km global land-cover data set. Current activities focus on designing improved large-area land-cover data products by incorporating data collected from newly launched sensors. USGS will continue to be responsive to the land-cover requirements for diverse applications with special focus toward land-cover dynamics. 127 Mapping, Remote Sensing, and Geographic Investigations Modeling Land-Cover Change and Biophysical Responses - The potential effects of human-induced land-cover change are a scientific concern for land-resource-management programs in highly populated and biologically sensitive systems such as in the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia and in south Florida. Human-induced land-cover changes in forested areas, agricultural lands, wetlands, and urban expansion have been examined to determine how these changes contribute to change in the biophysical environment. Specifically, researchers from the USGS and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland are working cooperatively with atmospheric scientists at Colorado State University to investigate the hypothesis that land-cover changes over the past 100-200 years have contributed to significant variability of regional land-surface biophysical, weather, and climatic processes. Modeling results have been used to quantify the effects of land-cover change on biophysical land-surface processes and have been compared with in situ meteorological observations and with overlapping paleo-climatic, salinity, and reconstructed vegetation data from USGS studies of sedimentary core and pollen samples. Results are being evaluated by resource managers and incorporated into their plans for protecting the environment. environmental, resource, and economic issues and consequences resulting from landscape change. For example, in northwestern Pennsylvania and southeastern New York, a region of forested, low mountains, rates of change have been shown to be low. Nevertheless, landscape trends also indicated that tourism, lakeside communities, and local resorts have shown significant growth during the study period and compete with forestry and mining activities as the dominant form of change. Justification of Program Change The decrease of -$161 includes a reduction of -$15 for travel and transportation and -$146 in streamlining savings resulting from organizational restructuring and workforce balancing. 128 Uncontrollable costs increases for this activity total $4,228, of which $1,930 will be budgeted and $2,298 will be absorbed through increased efficiencies. Program changes for this activity total include a reduction of -$324 for travel and transportation and -$1,701 in streamlining savings resulting from organizational restructuring and workforce balancing. Activity Summary Introduction Through its programs within the Geologic Hazards, Resources, and Processes Activity, the USGS identifies and helps meet the Earth science information needs of a wide variety of Federal, State, and local agencies, and the private sector. This information is used to evaluate resource potential, to define risks associated with natural hazards, and to characterize the potential impact of natural geologic processes on human activity, the economy, and the environment. Hazards - These programs are designed to produce information and understanding that will lead to a reduced impact of natural hazards and disasters on human life and the economy. The United States is subject to a variety of natural hazards (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, coastal storms, and erosion) that present grave threats to people and property. The occurrence of these hazardous events is inevitable and uncontrollable. However, the extent of damage and loss of life can be reduced through pre-event planning; social, economic, and engineering adaptations; provision of real-time warning capabilities, and more effective post-event emergency response. Central to this preplanning is the availability of accurate, scientifically based assessments that define the nature and degree of risk. The more precisely that risks can be defined, the greater the likelihood that appropriate mitigation strategies will be adopted (e.g., building codes for new construction and retrofitting; insurance systems; land-use plans; design and location/routing of critical infrastructure such as highways, bridges, subways, water, sewer, gas, electric, and petroleum-distribution networks). USGS geologic hazards programs conduct basic and applied research, gather data, operate monitoring networks, perform assessments, and disseminate findings to the public for the purpose of advancing capabilities to better define risk and encouraging appropriate response to these risks. Resources - These programs assess the availability and quality of the Nation's mineral and energy resources to include the economic and environmental effects of resource extraction and use. The availability and cost (both economic and environmental) of energy and mineral resources and their extraction and use are limiting factors to human development. Throughout its history, the Nation has faced important, and often controversial, decisions regarding the use |