Geologic Hazards, Resources, and Processes of Federal lands, environmental management, and the supply of energy and mineral resources to sustain development and enable growth. Federal land-management agencies are required to develop plans that reconcile competing demands for resource development with other human activities, while recognizing environmental values and providing for the sustainability of resources and natural environments. Providing unbiased, scientifically valid assessments of the potential energy and mineral supply of the United States, and the environmental consequences of developing these resources, are core functions of the USGS. Historically, heavy emphasis within the USGS energy and mineral resource programs was given to fundamental research on ore genesis and the formation of mineral and energy deposits. The USGS energy and mineral resource programs have evolved in recent years to emphasize (a) developing and applying improved methods for oil, gas, coal, and mineral assessments, through use of advanced computer modeling; (b) bringing together resource quality and availability data to enable assessment of environmental considerations by public and private entities involved in energy and mineral resource extraction and use; and (c) gathering and disseminating census-style information on the development and use of mineral and energy resources, both domestically and internationally, for use by other government agencies and the private sector. Geologic Processes and Systems - These programs distinguish the effects of human activities from natural changes operating at or near the Earth's surface to enable more effective and efficient resource and environmental management decisions. Society needs to develop knowledge of the Earth's natural processes and cycles-their rates, frequencies, magnitudes, and how they affect each other. Armed with such knowledge, decisionmakers can respond better to both natural and human-induced changes. Natural hazards are less costly if their likely effects can be mapped and quantified. Resources can be more efficiently used if the impacts of their extraction can be anticipated. Damaged or endangered ecosystems can be repaired more effectively if the natural processes that form and maintain them are accounted for in remediation plans. Strategies for conserving and using the Nation's lands and resources are improved when the natural processes at work are recognized as well as the costs of working against them. Federal Role The Federal role in conducting science to understand geologic hazards, resources, and processes derives from the U.S. Government's responsibilities to protect the lives and property of its citizens, to support continued economic growth and competitiveness, and to assist society in anticipating and coping with the enormous forces of nature that shape and control the landscape. Natural hazards have significant social and economic impact on the Nation. Annually, as many as 10 potentially damaging earthquakes strike the conterminous United States, and more than 5,000 shocks large enough to be felt occur throughout the entire country. The United States has nearly 70 active and potentially active volcanoes, more than all other countries except for Indonesia and Japan. During the 20th century, volcanic eruptions in Washington, California, Alaska, and Hawaii devastated thousands of square miles and caused substantial economic and societal disruption and, in the worst instances, loss of life. Notably, volcanic ash poses a unique threat to air traffic. Landslides, which cause about $1-2 billion in damages and more than 25 fatalities each year in the United States, pose serious threats to transportation and housing as well as infrastructure that supports fisheries, tourism, timber harvesting, mining, and energy production. Activity Summary The USGS geologic hazards programs contribute to the reduction of human and economic losses and disruptions associated with these natural hazards by (1) defining, assessing, and monitoring potential earthquake, volcano, and landslide hazards as the basis for loss-reduction strategies and actions by government and the private sector; (2) providing analyses and real-time information and warnings for improved disaster response, for reducing losses from future disasters, and for enhanced public awareness of these natural hazards; and (3) expanding the fundamental knowledge of earthquake, volcano, and landslide generation, effects, and geologic processes for more effective risk-mitigation and disaster-response strategies. Minerals and mineral products account for about $500 billion of the Nation's gross domestic product. The expanding need for minerals in the United States and the world demands research in new techniques and concepts to assess the Nation's mineral wealth and provide accurate mineral resource information for national policy. At the same time, Federal and State agencies and industry are concerned with the environmental consequences of past and current mineral extraction activities. The ability to make informed decisions about these issues depends on having current, accurate scientific information on known and potential resources and on environmental and economic implications of their development. The Nation faces the challenge of simultaneously addressing an expanding appetite for energy, a growing dependence on imported oil, and an increasing demand that energy resource extraction and use be environmentally benign. The USGS addresses this challenge by generating and providing energy information. This information is used by others to shape policies regarding domestic and foreign energy resources, to make wise decisions regarding Federal land use, and to maintain a healthy domestic energy industry increasingly composed of smaller companies. Knowledge of the national and world endowment of oil, natural gas, and coal is of fundamental importance to informed decisionmaking regarding the security and economic welfare of the United States. Every year greater proportions of the landscape are built upon and paved; large amounts of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides are released to the atmosphere; marginal lands are stressed by agricultural practices encouraging the spread of deserts; and prodigious quantities of wastes are buried just beneath the Earth's surface. Human activities such as these can be directed toward working with natural processes to the extent possible (at acceptable cost to society) and away from activities in conflict with natural processes (which incur maximum costs). A comprehensive understanding of the dynamism of the Earth's surface is essential if the Nation is to enjoy, rather than endure, life through the next century. Customers and Partners Hazards - The USGS cooperates and coordinates closely with local, State, and other Federal agencies and the university community to determine and provide for their needs for Earth science information critical for developing mitigation strategies. For example, the USGS is an important partner of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, cooperating closely with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The USGS also monitors 43 U.S. volcanoes posing the greatest risk and provides information on volcanic unrest and eruptions to Federal, State, and local emergency agencies. For example, the USGS cooperates with the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Aviation Administration Geologic Hazards, Resources, and Processes (FAA) to provide warnings to the airline industry on hazards due to volcanic ash from explosive eruptions. Through these and other cooperative arrangements, the USGS helps assure that the needs for risk assessments of hazards are met. Resources - The Federal Government manages about one-third of the Nation's land area. It also manages the Exclusive Economic Zone, which extends 200 nautical miles from the Nation's coasts and encompasses an area that exceeds the Nation's land area. The USGS is the primary provider of Earth science mineral-and-energy resource information and assessments for Federal agencies such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) who are responsible for managing these areas. The USGS also works closely with the Department of Energy (DOE) in implementation of the National Energy Strategy. The USGS cooperates with many local and State agencies and coal and electric power producers to assess the availability and quality of coal resources. Every 5 years, the USGS publishes an assessment of the Nation's oil and natural-gas resources; land managers, energy producers, utility managers, and policymakers, among others, use the assessment. The USGS World Petroleum Assessment assessed the 76 most productive oil and gas provinces of the world that contain about 95 percent of the world's oil and gas resources. This assessment is the first of its kind to include a rigorous geologic foundation for remaining resource volumes, and the first to make those data available to the entire geoscience, business, and research community. The U.S. Departments of Energy, Defense, and State; U.S. Agency for International Development; Energy Information Administration; International Energy Agency, the intelligence community; and over two dozen industry partners assisted in this effort. The USGS cooperates with State geological surveys in conducting coal availability and coal-quality studies. Regional consortia are being developed between the USGS and the State geological surveys, electric utilities, coal producers, and with the Electric Power Research Institute to assess coal quantity and quality in several coal-producing basins. Finally, the USGS cooperates with hundreds of domestic and international producers and users of mineral commodities to compile reports on the supply and utilization of these resources for purposes of economic development and national security. Geologic Processes and Systems -- The USGS coordinates with a large number of local, State, and Federal agencies on a wide range of geologic, coastal, and marine studies. For example, the USGS cooperates and coordinates with Federal land management agencies. including the BLM, USFS, National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) and others to provide basic geologic and interpretive information tailored to their issues. On environmental issues, the USGS coordinates with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), DOE, the Department of Defense (DOD), and State and local environmental agencies to assist in characterizing sites and providing needed information on the nature, magnitude, and source of contamination problems. In the coastal environment, the USGS cooperates closely with the National Marine Fisheries Service, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to provide the marine and coastal geologic information necessary for developing management plans. Locally and regionally, the USGS coordinates with State geological surveys and other State agencies, communities, and universities. The objectives of the close cooperation and coordination are to (1) assure that the USGS is addressing priority issues and that the information is prepared and presented in a form that is readily usable, and (2) assure that the appropriate mix of scientific expertise, including personnel from State and local agencies and universities as necessary, is addressing identified problems. Uncontrollable cost increases for this subactivity total $1,255, of which $573 will be budgeted and $682 will be absorbed through increased efficiencies. Uncontrollable cost increases for this program element total $853, of which $390 will be budgeted and $463 will be absorbed through increased efficiencies. Program changes for this subactivity total include a reduction of -$96 for travel and transportation and -$510 in streamlining savings resulting from organizational restructuring and workforce balancing. Program changes for this program element total include a reduction of -$65 for travel and transportation and -$347 in streamlining savings resulting from organizational restructuring and workforce balancing. Earthquake Hazards Current Program Highlights The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program provides the scientific information and knowledge necessary to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses from earthquakes. Products of this program include timely notifications of earthquake locations, size, and potential damage; regional and national assessments of earthquakes hazards, and increased understanding of the cause of earthquakes and their effects. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program is the applied Earth science component of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) authorized by the "Earthquake Hazards Reduction Authorization Act of 2000," P.L. 106-503. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is the lead agency of the national program and it coordinates the activities with the three other principal NEHRP agencies: USGS, National Science Foundation (NSF), and National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The three basic elements of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and their approximate budget share are: • Assessment and Characterization of Earthquake Hazards, 40 percent. • Monitoring and Reporting Earthquake Activity and Crustal Deformation, 40 percent. • Conducting Research into Earthquake Causes and Effects, 20 percent. These program areas are described in detail below. The USGS supports external research and monitoring activities in each of these elements. Approximately 25 percent of the total Geologic Hazard Assessments Subactivity Earthquake Hazards Program budget is directed toward research grants and cooperative agreements with universities, State agencies, and private technical firms. The external work is carried out in all three elements. Assessment and Characterization of Earthquake Hazards (estimates for FY 2001. $19.0 million; FY 2002, $19.0 million: FY 2003, $19.0 million) - The USGS contributes to earthquake hazard mitigation strategies by estimating and describing the likelihood and potential effects of moderate-to-large earthquakes in high-risk regions of the United States, and by transferring this knowledge to individuals, organizations, and agencies so that it can be used to reduce the impact of potentially damaging earthquakes. Federal, State, and local government agencies, architects and engineers, insurance companies and other private businesses, land-use planners, emergency response officials, and the general public rely on the USGS for earthquake hazard information to refine building codes, develop land use strategies, safeguard lifelines and critical facilities, develop emergency response plans, and take other precautionary actions to reduce losses from future earthquakes. Products for Earthquake Loss Reduction - USGS national seismic hazard maps are used to develop new, unified building codes for the United States. The maps integrate geologic mapping: fault locations, fault slip rates, and earthquake recurrence intervals; and analyses of crustal deformation, ground-motion patterns, and recent seismicity. These maps are prepared in digital format and give, as a function of latitude and longitude, the maximum severity of ground shaking (in terms of horizontal acceleration) that can be expected during exposure periods of 50, 100, and 250 years. As such, they are the basis for applying the seismic design criteria contained in the building codes. The maps and their associated databases are also used to predict earthquake losses and to define insurance risks. Periodic review and updating of the seismic hazard maps to incorporate new information are among the highest priorities for the USGS. The next generation of maps is scheduled for release in FY 2003, and the USGS is working closely with earthquake researchers, engineers, and State and local government representatives across the Nation to ensure that the base geologic data represent the most current and accurate information available. Earthquake Hazards Assessments in Urban Areas - The national-scale earthquake hazards maps cannot take into account variations in the amplitude and duration of seismic shaking caused by local geologic structures and soil conditions. The USGS is generating products that address the specific hazards in high-to-moderate risk urban areas, where the population and risks are greatest, such as the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles, CA, Seattle, WA; Salt Lake City, UT; Memphis, TN; and Charleston, SC. Earthquake shaking scenarios are being developed for use by local officials in determining where to allow development, and modeling of ground motion is being provided for engineering applications In conjunction with these products, the USGS conducts workshops to assure the proper transfer of knowledge and to help design effective mitigation. Monitoring and Reporting Earthquake Activity and Crustal Deformation (estimates for FY 2001, $19.0 million; FY 2002, $21.0 million; FY 2003, $21.0 million) - As required under the Disaster Relief Act of 1974 (Public Law 92-288), the USGS has the assigned Federal responsibility for monitoring and notification of seismic activity in the United States. The USGS fulfills this role by operating the U.S. National Seismograph Network (USNSN), the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), and the National Strong Motion Program (NSMP), and by supporting fifteen regional networks in areas of moderate-to-high seismic activity. All of these efforts are coordinated under the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). The |