(1) The period of analysis is 50 years. (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) The price basis for benefits and costs is Fiscal Year 1992. The discount rate is 8.5 percent, the Federal discount rate for water resource projects for Fiscal Year 1992. There will be no technological breakthrough which would render Savannah any more or less competitive than its present market share. That is, if any new equipment or methods become available to one port, it will be available to all and would be so adopted. Observed industry trends are reliable indicators of future trends. The Panama Canal will continue to be constrained to 40foot draft vessels. No lock replacement is assumed. (7) Shippers are economically rational and will attempt to maximize their profits in the long run. (8) Shippers will utilize channel improvements where it makes sense in the context of their operations. Many of the shippers will take advantage of a deeper channel. (9) Historical, light-loading practices represent conscious choices by shippers based upon their operations, and this practice will continue with improved channels also. However, many would use the larger vessels available to them with a deeper channel, but continue to light load these vessels to some extent, based on their operational needs. (10) (11) (12) Liner service shipping companies aspire to maintain their scheduled service at 100 percent availability of channel depth; however, delay savings are captured in the benefit analysis since some delays will continue to be incurred. Port interests will continue to invest in capital facilities necessary to maintain their market share. Port throughput will increase over time due to improved productivity of labor through new capital investment. (13) The future world fleet will be more efficient in both vessel operations and in the allocation of ships to ports of call. The Savannah fleet will mirror the world fleet with an improved project, but will lag the world fleet in the absence of channel improvement due to a degraded ability to efficiently handle these larger ships. (14) In the absence of an improved channel, the Port of substantially. bankruptcy of U.S. Lines and (15) Pilotage regulations will remain essentially unchanged in the future, both with and without project. Four feet of underkeel clearance for safety clearance and squat are the local requirement. Planning Setting The Port of Savannah is one of the major container handling ports in the world. Along with Charleston, Norfolk, and New York/New Jersey, Savannah is a first tier container port for East Coast import and export containerized traffic. Bulk cargos, both dry and liquid, are also handled in significant volumes. The import of bulk commodities supports localized markets within approximately 100 miles of Savannah, while the hinterland source for bulk exports tends to be somewhat larger. Grains are railed to Savannah from the Midwest as well as regional sources. Exports of kaolin clay originate from central Georgia. Without Project Conditions The without project condition is the most likely condition expected to exist over the planning period in the absence of a deepening project and is the basis for estimating the economic benefits of any proposed channel improvements. Vessel operating schedules will continue to be constrained by the present 38-foot channel. As the average size of vessels in the world containership fleet increases, vessels calling on Savannah will experience increased transportation costs due to light loading and tidal delays. Savannah Vessel Fleet. The current vessel fleet calling on the Port of Savannah demonstrates that shippers are attempting to maximize the vessel sizes, given the constraint of the existing 38-foot channel depth. The container ship fleet is heavily concentrated in the 38-foot draft range. Although the world fleet has a higher percentage of vessels with drafts in excess of 38 feet, those ships are a smaller proportion of the current Savannah fleet than they represent in the world fleet, as shown in Table 18. Dry bulk vessels calling at Savannah are less uniform in size, although the proportion of Panamax and post-Panamax vessels calling in Savannah is significantly lower than in the world fleet. This clearly reflects the constraint of the channel depth, as shown in Table 19. Source: Percent of fleet 26-33 ft = 20.3 Savannah District, Savannah Pilots Association, Engineers. Source: Savannah District, Savannah Pilots Association, Engineers. Harbor Improvements. Recently, the Talmadge Bridge, which previously spanned the river at the entrance to the principal port facilities, was replaced by a new high clearance span. The old bridge's vertical and horizontal clearances previously resulted in delays and accidents. As a result of these accidents and a desire to attract the larger vessels coming on line in the world fleet, the new bridge, along with deepening the channel, will allow the port to handle the largest vessels in the world fleet. An additional improvement involves widening the harbor to allow larger vessels to pass through the harbor. The widening project was authorized in 1986, and construction will be completed in 1992. Alternative Future Conditions. Three discrete channel deepening alternatives were analyzed in this study. Depths of 40, 42, and 44 feet were analyzed. The traffic projections remain the same for all three alternatives, but the projected fleet of both dry bulk and container vessels varies with channel depth. The container fleet, in particular, shows a different mix of vessel sizes in response to the increased channel depth. Vessel Technology. On average, new vessels in the fleet calling on Savannah will be larger and have deeper drafts than the vessels in the present fleet. Vessel technology improvements will continue, as projected by Temple-Barker-Sloan (TBS) and the Maritime Administration (MARAD). Commodity Projections and Major Markets. Total harbor tonnage is projected to increase from 14 million tons in 1988 to 16.5 million tons by 1995, the base year for the benefit analysis. Over the 50-year period to the year 2045, total harbor tonnage is projected to reach 34.1 million tons. No significant change in Savannah Harbor's major markets or market share is assumed. For container traffic, the present 80 percent of total trade on the Far East and European trade routes is assumed to extend into the future. Table 20 presents the projected tonnage for major commodities. Only containerized general cargo and export grain shipments are included in the benefitting traffic base for the deepening project. These categories represent less than a third of the Port of Savannah's current traffic, indicating significant potential for future benefits which are not included in the projected benefit stream for the deepening project. Significant growth in all of the port's commerce indicates a sizeable future traffic base for the harbor. However, benefits to grains and container traffic alone are well able to support the proposed project. |