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burials in the adjoining agricultural villages; although the population either of those villages, or of the towns to which the emigrations take place, by no means exhibits a corresponding increase. This excess of births above burials in some of the villages, where no numerical increase has taken place in the population, has been found to mount as high as 2 or 3 to 1; and as the excess of births above deaths is naturally the universal measure of the increase in the population, we may be sure that where that excess is great, in a situation where no increase has actually taken place, the surplus has been drawn off to other points. If we suppose that, taking one town with another, a fifth of the inhabitants are not natives, but settlers from the country, the calculation will probably be found not exaggerated for towns with a stationary population, and to be much within the proportion that has been proved to exist in many towns that have rapidly increased their numbers. This may perhaps at first surprise many readers; but it will by no means appear exaggerated, if they attend to the following calculation. An excess of annual deaths above annual births of 7 in each 1000 of existing persons has been considered a low average in towns even of a moderate size. Upon this datum let us suppose a town to contain 1000 inhabitants, and it follows that seven emigrants per 1000 from the country must yearly settle in the town to keep up its population. We will suppose likewise, that the proportion of deaths to the population in this town is 1 to 28; i.e. that a number equal to the whole population dies in 28 years, or a twenty-eighth part (viz. 353 persons in 1000) on the average in
every succeeding year. This is a rate of mortality less than that which is indicated by the best information with respect to the average mortality of European towns. It will appear reasonable, if we consider that the returns seem to prove that, (omitting all those sent into the country in the early periods of life, where a portion of them die without being included in the returns of the town), from a third to a half of the number born in towns usually die in the very earliest stages of life. The average expectation of life in a child just born in a town is never more than 19 years. In Vienna and Stockholm half the number born die under two years of age; in Manchester, containing 84,000 souls, under five; in Northampton, containing 7000 souls, under ten. Now in any space of 28 years, the number of acceders from the country settled in this town, at 7 in the 1000 per year, will be 196; and if they arrive there at the usual period of life (between 18 and 22 years of age), when they have all, one with another, an expectation of life equal to 30 years, i.e. an average prospect, which may be safely calculated upon, of reaching the ages of 48 to 52, the number will not be diminished in the course of the generation: on the contrary, 7 multiplied by 30 gives 210, which would be the number per 1000 of emigrants from the country always residing in the town after the lapse of the first 30 years. For though some may die within a few years of their arrival, others will live beyond the age of 48 or 52, so the average will be the same. But as a few may come to settle between the ages of 22 and 35, during which periods the expectation of life is in some degree lower, and continually decreasing, a subtraction must be made on this account from the number of 210 strangers. This, however, cannot be very large; and would scarcely do more than reduce the whole number of them to 200, the fifth of 1000, which is the proportion of settlers always existing, that I have been endeavouring to establish as a moderate calculation, and which appears from the foregoing statement to be indispensable in towns, when an excess of deaths above births equal to 7 in 1000 takes place among the inhabitants. Such would be the case were the population of the town stationary; but if from an increase in the demand for labour, or other causes, it should be rapidly extending itself, of course a larger influx of settlers must take place. Supposing the number required to be no more than two individuals in a thousand annually, this would raise the proportion of strangers in the town from a fifth to above a fourth, and so on in proportion to the rapidity of the increasing demand for labour, or of the other causes of attraction to settlers. For all these reasons it cannot appear exaggerated to assert, that that third part of the population, which has been supposed to reside in towns in the state of society referred to, is not only incapable of keeping up its own number, but requires in each generation a number, at least equal to a fifth of its own, from the other two-thirds of the people, in order to prevent a diminution in its actual population. Still less can it be denied, that where a continually increasing demand exists for labourers in employments which are carried on in towns, a continually increasing proportion of recruits must also be afforded by the rest of the people. Let us see, therefore, to what extent the remaining two-thirds are capable of af. fording this necessary supply of recruits.
Of these two-thirds of the population not resident in towns, we have already remarked three-eighths, or a portion equal to one-fourth of the whole population, to be employed in agriculture. The portion remaining to be accounted for, which does not live in towns, and is yet not employed in agriculture, amounts to five-eighths, or about two-fifths of the whole population. These comprise the village shopkeepers and manufacturers, soldiers, sailors, and men of fortune, with their descendants, families, and menial servants; of whom (though some may be productive enough of people), yet it may be difficult to say that the whole keep up their numbers. A reference to the state of England would probably show, that about a fourth of this portion of the people consists of men of rank and easy fortune, with their families, and unemployed descendants, deriving income from various funds, but many of them possessing not more than enough fortune to afford their accustomed enjoyments in the single state. From these and other causes, so many of them do not marry, or at least not till late in life, and so many more, from the various causes before-mentioned, do not rear families of any size, that the aggregate amount of all their descendants is not sufficient to replace their own numbers; although they do not fall short of it in the same degree with the inhabitants of towns. Of the remainder of this portion, one-eighth may be said to consist of the army, the mercantile and military navy, emigrants to colonies, &c. with their families and attendants; who are so far from keeping up their own numbers at home, that they are a continual drain to a very considerable amount, upon the most robust and effective part of the people. The remaining half and one-eighth of this portion of the people consists of the manufacturing labourers, and small proprietors, residing in the country, who (though the former, from occasional unhealthy occupation, fall short of the husbandmen in prolific power), are capable, upon the whole, not only of keeping up their whole numbers, but of affording a surplus, large in proportion to the means they have of sustaining their children by the remuneration of their labour. The same is the case with the agricultural fourth of the people.* Thus we see that before a country has advanced very far in the commercial state, and long before it ap
* In a country containing a population of nine millions, the following would be the distribution of the people according to the state of society supposed in the text. 1. One-third in towns (not reproducing their own numbers). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3,000,000 2. One-fourth in agriculture, (reproducing their own numbers and supplying the deficiences in the towns, &c.)... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,250,000 3. A fourth of the remainder, men of rank and fortune with their families, unemployed descendants, and servants (not reproducing their own numbers) 937,500 4. Army, navy, mercantile, and military emigrants to foreign settlements with their families and attendants (almost entirely supplied from the classes reproducing their own numbers).................. 468,750 5. Country manufacturers, shopkeepers, small proprietors, &c. with their families (reproducing their own numbers, but affording no material supply to the deficiency of the other classes, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,343,750
The three classes not reproducing their own numbers leaving a deficiency of at least a fifth of their aggregate number, or 880,000 souls in a generation, to be made up by the two other classes, principally by that marked 2.