Making hard decisions with decision tools
Teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This title incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools[registered] software by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis.
XXVI, 816 Seiten : Diagramme
9780538797573, 0538797576
862806711
1. Introduction to Decision Analysis.SECTION I: MODELING DECISIONS.2. Elements of Decision Problems.3. Structuring Decisions.4. Making Choices.5. Sensitivity Analysis.6. Organizational Decision Making.SECTION II: MODELING UNCERTAINTY.7. Probability Basics.8. Subjective Probability.9. Theoretical Probability Models.10. Using Data.11. Monte Carlo Simulation.12. Value of Information.13. Real Options.SECTION III. MODELING PREFERENCES.14. Risk Attitudes.15. Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications.16. Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Function.17. Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactions18. Conclusions and Further Reading.